Utah State vs. Iowa: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USUTeam statsIOWA
- Q4 1:36USUTerrell Vaughn 16 Yd pass from Cooper Legas (Cooper Legas Pass to Rahsul Faison for Two-Point Conversion)14–24
- Q4 10:17IOWAKaleb Johnson 3 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)6–24
- Q3 12:02USUElliott Nimrod 45 Yd Field Goal 6–17
- Q2 0:07IOWADrew Stevens 20 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q2 11:03USUWilliam Testa 32 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 7:44IOWAErick All 3 Yd pass from Cade McNamara (Drew Stevens Kick)0–14
- Q1 14:18IOWASeth Anderson 36 Yd pass from Cade McNamara (Drew Stevens Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassCooper Legas 32/48, 213 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushRahsul Faison 7 CAR, 59 YDS
- RecTerrell Vaughn 12 REC, 93 YDS, 1 TD
- PassCade McNamara 17/30, 191 YDS, 2 TD
- RushKaleb Johnson 19 CAR, 63 YDS, 1 TD
- RecLuke Lachey 7 REC, 73 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsIOWA up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,139 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 14:18IOWA +10%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Seth Anderson for 36 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)
- Q1 7:44IOWA +6%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 3 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Utah State vs. Iowa?
Utah State 14, Iowa 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (IOWA) was correct.
| USU | IOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| 329 | Total yards | 284 |
| 213 | Passing yards | 196 |
| 116 | Rushing yards | 88 |
| 19 | First downs | 17 |
| 5-17 | 3rd down | 6-17 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 32/48 | Comp/Att | 18/33 |
| 4.4 | Yards per pass | 5.9 |
| 4.8 | Yards per rush | 2.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 10-91 | Penalties | 7-50 |
| 27:48 | Possession | 32:12 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:07 IOWA field goal on 4th & 2 at USU 2. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.39 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:36USUTerrell Vaughn 16 Yd pass from Cooper Legas (Cooper Legas Pass to Rahsul Faison for Two-Point Conversion)14–24
- Q4 10:17IOWAKaleb Johnson 3 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)6–24
- Q3 12:02USUElliott Nimrod 45 Yd Field Goal 6–17
- Q2 0:07IOWADrew Stevens 20 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q2 11:03USUWilliam Testa 32 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 7:44IOWAErick All 3 Yd pass from Cade McNamara (Drew Stevens Kick)0–14
- Q1 14:18IOWASeth Anderson 36 Yd pass from Cade McNamara (Drew Stevens Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (IOWA Elo 1665, USU Elo 1395 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects IOWA -13.2 (81% to win) — 10.3 points clear of USU's market line of -23.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| USU | IOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| -9.8 (#99) | CORE overall | -2.0 (#71) |
| -1 / +9 | offense / defense | -20 / -18 |
| 2.01 | points / drive | 1.07 |
| 2.59 | allowed / drive | 1.02 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 43% |
| +2 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →