Tennessee vs. Florida: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TENNTeam statsFLA
- Q4 8:41TENNBru McCoy 55 Yd pass from Joe Milton III 16–29
- Q4 9:55FLATrey Smack 27 Yd Field Goal 10–29
- Q3 9:31TENNCharles Campbell 42 Yd Field Goal 10–26
- Q2 2:22FLAMontrell Johnson Jr. 18 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Trey Smack Kick)7–26
- Q2 7:20FLAGraham Mertz 1 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)7–19
- Q2 9:28FLAMontrell Johnson Jr. 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)7–12
- Q1 4:10FLATrevor Etienne 62 Yd Run (Adam Mihalek PAT blocked)7–6
- Q1 5:33TENNRamel Keyton 11 Yd pass from Joe Milton III (Charles Campbell Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassJoe Milton III 20/34, 287 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushJaylen Wright 16 CAR, 63 YDS
- RecBru McCoy 5 REC, 94 YDS, 1 TD
- PassGraham Mertz 19/24, 166 YDS, 1 TD
- RushTrevor Etienne 23 CAR, 172 YDS, 1 TD
- RecEugene Wilson III 6 REC, 44 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFLA up 16 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,240 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 7:20FLA +22%
Graham Mertz 1 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)
- Q2 9:28FLA +17%
Montrell Johnson Jr. 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
- Q2 2:22FLA +16%
Montrell Johnson Jr. 18 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Trey Smack Kick)
- Q1 5:33TENN +13%
Ramel Keyton 11 Yd pass from Joe Milton III (Charles Campbell Kick)
- Q1 4:10FLA +11%
Trevor Etienne 62 Yd Run (Adam Mihalek PAT blocked)
- Q3 9:31TENN +6%
Charles Campbell 42 Yd Field Goal
FAQ
What was the final score of Tennessee vs. Florida?
Tennessee 16, Florida 29.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TENN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TENN | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 387 | Total yards | 349 |
| 287 | Passing yards | 166 |
| 100 | Rushing yards | 183 |
| 17 | First downs | 21 |
| 8-15 | 3rd down | 7-14 |
| 0-3 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 20/34 | Comp/Att | 19/24 |
| 8.4 | Yards per pass | 6.9 |
| 3.3 | Yards per rush | 4.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 10-79 | Penalties | 5-30 |
| 22:32 | Possession | 37:28 |
Costliest call
Q3 7:53 FLA punt on 4th & 2 at FLA 33. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.25 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:41TENNBru McCoy 55 Yd pass from Joe Milton III 16–29
- Q4 9:55FLATrey Smack 27 Yd Field Goal 10–29
- Q3 9:31TENNCharles Campbell 42 Yd Field Goal 10–26
- Q2 2:22FLAMontrell Johnson Jr. 18 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Trey Smack Kick)7–26
- Q2 7:20FLAGraham Mertz 1 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)7–19
- Q2 9:28FLAMontrell Johnson Jr. 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)7–12
- Q1 4:10FLATrevor Etienne 62 Yd Run (Adam Mihalek PAT blocked)7–6
- Q1 5:33TENNRamel Keyton 11 Yd pass from Joe Milton III (Charles Campbell Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FLA Elo 1546, TENN Elo 1887 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FLA +11.2 (24% to win) — 5.7 points clear of TENN's market line of +5.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#65 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #75 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds · #6 of 51 in 2023 by biggest poll gap.
The 2023 upset archive →Florida leads 32–23 · Tennessee has won 2 straight · 38% have been one-possession games
| TENN | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| +19.8 (#13) | CORE overall | +5.7 (#41) |
| +12 / -8 | offense / defense | +9 / +3 |
| 2.54 | points / drive | 2.36 |
| 1.53 | allowed / drive | 2.72 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →