#15Graham Mertz

QB·Florida·2024

Graham Mertz is a Dual-Threat QB for Florida. Graham's 2024 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 114 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Graham Mertz's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Passing

72/94 Comp/Att791 Pass yards6 Pass TD2 INT76.6% Comp %

Rushing

56 Rush yards1 Rush TD18 Carries3.1 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat87
Consistency70
Clutch0

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency70th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸Peak game: 0.69 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Mississippi State (SP+ -4).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsMiami	L17-41	21.6	11/20	91	0	1	19.1	3	0	-0.23
3	vsTexas A&M	L20-33	17.0	12/15	195	1	1	45.3	7	0	0.44
4	@Mississippi State	W45-28	-4.1	19/21	201	3	0	95.1	24	1	0.69
6	vsUCF	W24-13	2.8	19/23	179	1	0	81.5	11	0	0.29
7	@Tennessee	L17-23	22.0	11/15	125	1	0	66.9	11	0	0.33

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

37.3%

Passing plays

64.5%

Rushing plays

10.4%

Standard downs

34.1%

Passing downs

45.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.41
Passing downs: 0.04
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.27 / 0.33

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).