Temple vs. Tulsa: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TEMTeam statsTLSA
- Q4 2:35TEMJohn Adams 2 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (E.J. Warner Pass to Edward Saydee for Two-Point Conversion)26–48
- Q4 4:58TLSACardell Williams 22 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)18–48
- Q4 12:04TLSATahj Gary 40 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)18–41
- Q4 14:24TLSAChase Meyer 36 Yd Field Goal 18–34
- Q3 1:00TEMAmad Anderson Jr. 3 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Camden Price Kick)18–31
- Q3 6:09TLSAAnthony Watkins 10 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)11–31
- Q3 8:07TEMSam Martin 95 Yd Kickoff Return (E.J. Warner Pass to Dante Wright for Two-Point Conversion)11–24
- Q3 8:21TLSAChase Meyer 26 Yd Field Goal 3–24
- Q2 7:28TLSADevan Williams 8 Yd pass from Cardell Williams (Chase Meyer Kick)3–21
- Q1 1:58TLSAMarquis Shoulders 27 Yd pass from Cardell Williams (Chase Meyer Kick)3–14
- Q1 6:15TLSAMarquis Shoulders 10 Yd pass from Cardell Williams (Chase Meyer Kick)3–7
- Q1 11:02TEMCamden Price 36 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassE.J. Warner 27/49, 269 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushJoquez Smith 10 CAR, 26 YDS
- RecAmad Anderson Jr. 4 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- PassCardell Williams 14/17, 244 YDS, 3 TD
- RushCardell Williams 10 CAR, 90 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMarquis Shoulders 5 REC, 76 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTLSA up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,179 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 6:15TLSA +16%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Marquis Shoulders for 10 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)
- Q1 1:58TLSA +12%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Marquis Shoulders for 27 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)
- Q1 11:02TEM +7%
Camden Price 36 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 7:28TLSA +6%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Devan Williams for 8 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Temple vs. Tulsa?
Temple 26, Tulsa 48.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TLSA) was correct.
| TEM | TLSA | |
|---|---|---|
| 313 | Total yards | 533 |
| 269 | Passing yards | 244 |
| 44 | Rushing yards | 289 |
| 15 | First downs | 24 |
| 6-18 | 3rd down | 9-15 |
| 3-6 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 27/49 | Comp/Att | 14/17 |
| 5.5 | Yards per pass | 14.4 |
| 2.1 | Yards per rush | 5.5 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 3-15 | Penalties | 2-15 |
| 24:45 | Possession | 35:15 |
Costliest call
Q3 8:21 TLSA field goal on 4th & 1 at TEM 8. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.14 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:35TEMJohn Adams 2 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (E.J. Warner Pass to Edward Saydee for Two-Point Conversion)26–48
- Q4 4:58TLSACardell Williams 22 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)18–48
- Q4 12:04TLSATahj Gary 40 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)18–41
- Q4 14:24TLSAChase Meyer 36 Yd Field Goal 18–34
- Q3 1:00TEMAmad Anderson Jr. 3 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Camden Price Kick)18–31
- Q3 6:09TLSAAnthony Watkins 10 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)11–31
- Q3 8:07TEMSam Martin 95 Yd Kickoff Return (E.J. Warner Pass to Dante Wright for Two-Point Conversion)11–24
- Q3 8:21TLSAChase Meyer 26 Yd Field Goal 3–24
- Q2 7:28TLSADevan Williams 8 Yd pass from Cardell Williams (Chase Meyer Kick)3–21
- Q1 1:58TLSAMarquis Shoulders 27 Yd pass from Cardell Williams (Chase Meyer Kick)3–14
- Q1 6:15TLSAMarquis Shoulders 10 Yd pass from Cardell Williams (Chase Meyer Kick)3–7
- Q1 11:02TEMCamden Price 36 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TLSA Elo 1294, TEM Elo 1139 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TLSA -8.6 (73% to win) — 5.6 points clear of TLSA's market line of -3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesThe series is level at 5–5 · Temple has won 2 straight · 30% have been one-possession games
| TEM | TLSA | |
|---|---|---|
| -24.0 (#130) | CORE overall | -17.5 (#118) |
| -14 / +10 | offense / defense | -6 / +12 |
| 1.54 | points / drive | 1.77 |
| 3.40 | allowed / drive | 3.02 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 34% |
| +10 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →