Hampton vs. Monmouth: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Hampton3-2

0010

Monmouth0-1

▸0061

Final

Kessler StadiumConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
HAMP	3	0	7	0	10
MONM	21	14	19	7	61

HAMPTeam statsMONM

196Total yards493

45Pass141

151Rush352

15First downs18

5-143rd down4-9

2Turnovers0

34:07Possession25:53

Scoring plays

• Q4 13:51MONMFrankie Savino 8 Yd Run (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)10–61
• Q3 4:35MONMJaden Shirden 72 Yd Run (Michael Calton Jr. PAT failed)10–54
• Q3 9:16MONMJaden Shirden 25 Yd Run (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)10–48
• Q3 10:17HAMPChristopher Zellous 2 Yd Run (Tristan Heaton Kick)10–41
• Q3 14:46MONMTJ Speight 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Michael Calton Jr. PAT failed)3–41
• Q2 0:09MONMAshanti Caviness Jr. 31 Yd pass from Marquez McCray (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)3–35
• Q2 11:05MONMSone Ntoh 5 Yd Run (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)3–28
• Q1 0:04MONMJaden Shirden 63 Yd Run (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)3–21
• Q1 1:32MONMJaden Shirden 9 Yd Run (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)3–14
• Q1 6:59MONMSone Ntoh 4 Yd Run (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)3–7
• Q1 7:56HAMPBrian Csehoski 28 Yd Field Goal 3–0

How the model called it

Market line

MONM −8.5

Against the number

MONM covered

line MONM −8.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

MONM 100%50%HAMP 100%

Kickoff139 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

MONM (top)HAMP (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MONM 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

MONM −8.5

Closing total

57.0

Model line

—

Actual result

HAMP 10 – 61 MONM

Leaders

Hampton

• PassChris Zellous 7/18, 45 YDS, 1 INT
• RushDarran Butts 18 CAR, 85 YDS
• RecRomon Copeland Jr. 1 REC, 19 YDS

Monmouth

• PassMarquez McCray 10/16, 140 YDS, 1 TD
• RushJaden Shirden 16 CAR, 276 YDS, 4 TD
• RecAssanti Kearney 2 REC, 66 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

29.6sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

120

Points / snap

0.59

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

MONM up 44 entering the 4th quarter. Across 178 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

MONM went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WUtah State vs Idaho State78-28WMerrimack vs Virginia University Of Lynchburg46-0WNotre Dame vs Pittsburgh58-7WSouth Dakota State vs Northern Iowa47-3WMiami vs Florida A&M56-9

Fourth downs

14 calls

Neither coaching staff gave up anything measurable.HAMP 8/8 · MONM 4/4 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Hampton vs. Monmouth?

Hampton 10, Monmouth 61.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (MONM) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

HAMP

MONM

37%

Success rate

44%

-0.33

EPA / pass

0.50

0.03

EPA / rush

0.79

40%

Early-down success

44%

17%

Pass success

35%

47%

Rush success

49%

3%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

18%

28%

Stuffed rush rate

15%

33%

Pass rate

34%

7.8

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.7

HAMP

7.8 yards to go on 3rd down

70 scrimmage snaps

MONM

6.7 yards to go on 3rd down

50 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

HAMP		MONM
196	Total yards	493
45	Passing yards	141
151	Rushing yards	352
15	First downs	18
5-14	3rd down	4-9
0-1	4th down	1-1
7/19	Comp/Att	11/17
2.4	Yards per pass	8.3
3.1	Yards per rush	10.7
2	Turnovers	0
5-34	Penalties	5-33
34:07	Possession	25:53

Fourth downs

14 calls

HAMP

8/8 with the model

nothing given up

MONM

4/4 with the model

nothing given up

No fourth-down call in this game cost more than a rounding error.

Every call, priced (14)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

HAMP 2/14 scoring drives← own end zone →MONM 8/12 scoring drives

HAMPFG17 pl, 63 yds· own 25Q1

MONMTD2 pl, 16 yds· opp 16Q1

HAMPPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 20Q1

MONMTD9 pl, 47 yds· opp 47Q1

HAMPPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 39Q1

MONMTD1 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q1

HAMPINT2 pl, 21 yds· own 25Q1

MONMTD8 pl, 91 yds· own 9Q2

HAMPFUM2 pl, -4 yds· own 25Q2

MONMMISS4 pl, -6 yds· opp 21Q2

HAMPPUNT5 pl, 12 yds· own 27Q2

MONMPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q2

HAMPDOWNS7 pl, 21 yds· own 34Q2

MONMTD2 pl, 55 yds· own 45Q2

HAMPEND1 pl, -2 yds· own 28Q2

HAMPTD9 pl, 66 yds· own 34Q3

MONMTD2 pl, 77 yds· own 23Q3

HAMPPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q3

MONMTD5 pl, 77 yds· own 23Q3

HAMPPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q3

MONMTD9 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q3

HAMPPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 25Q4

MONMPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 30Q4

HAMPPUNT9 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q4

MONMPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 33Q4

HAMPEND2 pl, -3 yds· own 21Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 13:51MONMFrankie Savino 8 Yd Run (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)10–61
• Q3 4:35MONMJaden Shirden 72 Yd Run (Michael Calton Jr. PAT failed)10–54
• Q3 9:16MONMJaden Shirden 25 Yd Run (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)10–48
• Q3 10:17HAMPChristopher Zellous 2 Yd Run (Tristan Heaton Kick)10–41
• Q3 14:46MONMTJ Speight 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Michael Calton Jr. PAT failed)3–41
• Q2 0:09MONMAshanti Caviness Jr. 31 Yd pass from Marquez McCray (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)3–35
• Q2 11:05MONMSone Ntoh 5 Yd Run (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)3–28
• Q1 0:04MONMJaden Shirden 63 Yd Run (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)3–21
• Q1 1:32MONMJaden Shirden 9 Yd Run (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)3–14
• Q1 6:59MONMSone Ntoh 4 Yd Run (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)3–7
• Q1 7:56HAMPBrian Csehoski 28 Yd Field Goal 3–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →