Florida Atlantic vs. Illinois: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FAUTeam statsILL
- Q4 4:19FAUBJ Alexander 9 Yd pass from Daniel Richardson (Logan Lupo Kick)17–23
- Q3 3:57ILLCaleb Griffin 44 Yd Field Goal 10–23
- Q3 8:11ILLAidan Laughery 3 Yd Run (Caleb Griffin PAT failed)10–20
- Q2 1:45ILLLuke Altmyer 7 Yd Run (Caleb Griffin Kick)10–14
- Q2 12:46ILLGriffin Moore 46 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (Caleb Griffin Kick)10–7
- Q1 0:00FAULaJohntay Wester 19 Yd pass from Daniel Richardson (Logan Lupo Kick)10–0
- Q1 3:14FAULogan Lupo 22 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassDaniel Richardson 28/49, 256 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushLarry McCammon III 17 CAR, 89 YDS
- RecLaJohntay Wester 13 REC, 137 YDS, 1 TD
- PassLuke Altmyer 25/36, 303 YDS, 1 TD
- RushReggie Love III 12 CAR, 85 YDS
- RecIsaiah Williams 8 REC, 120 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsILL up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,178 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 0:00FAU +20%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 19 yds for a TD (Logan Lupo KICK)
- Q2 12:46ILL +19%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Griffin Moore for 46 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK)
- Q2 1:45ILL +18%
Luke Altmyer run for 7 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK)
- Q3 8:11ILL +11%
Aidan Laughery run for 3 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin PAT MISSED)
- Q4 4:19FAU +9%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to BJ Alexander for 9 yds for a TD (Logan Lupo KICK)
- Q4 4:19ILL +8%
Josh McCray run for 2 yds to the ILL 27
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida Atlantic vs. Illinois?
Florida Atlantic 17, Illinois 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ILL) was correct.
| FAU | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 353 | Total yards | 510 |
| 256 | Passing yards | 303 |
| 97 | Rushing yards | 207 |
| 19 | First downs | 26 |
| 6-17 | 3rd down | 6-12 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 28/49 | Comp/Att | 25/36 |
| 5.2 | Yards per pass | 8.4 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 5.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 6-54 | Penalties | 6-72 |
| 28:33 | Possession | 31:27 |
Costliest call
Q4 14:11 FAU go for it on 4th & 14 at ILL 17. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.14 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:19FAUBJ Alexander 9 Yd pass from Daniel Richardson (Logan Lupo Kick)17–23
- Q3 3:57ILLCaleb Griffin 44 Yd Field Goal 10–23
- Q3 8:11ILLAidan Laughery 3 Yd Run (Caleb Griffin PAT failed)10–20
- Q2 1:45ILLLuke Altmyer 7 Yd Run (Caleb Griffin Kick)10–14
- Q2 12:46ILLGriffin Moore 46 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (Caleb Griffin Kick)10–7
- Q1 0:00FAULaJohntay Wester 19 Yd pass from Daniel Richardson (Logan Lupo Kick)10–0
- Q1 3:14FAULogan Lupo 22 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ILL Elo 1606, FAU Elo 1351 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ILL -12.6 (80% to win) — 3.4 points clear of FAU's market line of -16. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| FAU | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| -21.6 (#128) | CORE overall | +3.3 (#50) |
| -14 / +8 | offense / defense | +6 / +3 |
| 1.65 | points / drive | 2.02 |
| 2.02 | allowed / drive | 2.33 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| +6 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →