Delaware vs. Stony Brook: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Delaware

▸0037

Stony Brook

0013

Final

Kenneth P. LaValle StadiumConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
DEL	7	10	7	13	37
STON	0	3	10	0	13

DELTeam statsSTON

559Total yards327

414Pass163

145Rush164

28First downs20

3-123rd down4-13

4Turnovers3

31:19Possession28:41

Scoring plays

• Q4 10:12DELTy Davis 50 Yd Interception Return (Nate Reed PAT failed)37–13
• Q4 11:37DELKyron Cumby 13 Yd Run (Nate Reed Kick)31–13
• Q3 4:50STONSpencer Biscoe 25 Yd Field Goal 24–13
• Q3 9:13STONRoland Dempster 1 Yd Run (Spencer Biscoe Kick)24–10
• Q3 12:38DELMarcus Yarns 53 Yd Run (Nate Reed Kick)24–3
• Q2 0:35DELMarcus Yarns 5 Yd Run (Nate Reed Kick)17–3
• Q2 7:31DELNate Reed 34 Yd Field Goal 10–3
• Q2 11:59STONSpencer Biscoe 24 Yd Field Goal 7–3
• Q1 3:11DELKym Wimberly 14 Yd pass from Ryan O'Connor (Nate Reed Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Market line

DEL −15

Against the number

DEL covered

line DEL −15

What the numbers say

• STON lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 12% explosive on a 37% success rate

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

STON 100%50%DEL 100%

Kickoff161 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

STON (top)DEL (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: STON 0%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

DEL −15

Closing total

45.5

Model line

—

Actual result

DEL 37 – 13 STON

Leaders

Delaware

• PassRyan O'Connor 24/38, 346 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
• RushMarcus Yarns 11 CAR, 107 YDS, 2 TD
• RecChandler Harvin 5 REC, 100 YDS

Stony Brook

• PassCasey Case 14/40, 163 YDS, 3 INT
• RushJohnny Martin 8 CAR, 63 YDS
• RecJayce Freeman 5 REC, 62 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

23.7sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

152

Points / snap

0.33

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

DEL up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,139 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

88%

DEL went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WUAlbany vs Fordham34-13WIowa vs Utah State24-14WTexas State vs Baylor42-31WKentucky vs Eastern Kentucky28-17WSouthern Illinois vs Northern Illinois14-11

Fourth downs

15 calls

STON gave up 0.1 points to the model on fourth down.DEL 5/5 · STON 7/8 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Delaware vs. Stony Brook?

Delaware 37, Stony Brook 13.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked STON, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

DEL

STON

47%

Success rate

37%

0.30

EPA / pass

-0.43

0.20

EPA / rush

0.12

51%

Early-down success

39%

49%

Pass success

32%

43%

Rush success

45%

22%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

12%

17%

Stuffed rush rate

21%

62%

Pass rate

60%

9.2

Avg 3rd-down distance

8.9

DEL

9.2 yards to go on 3rd down

79 scrimmage snaps

STON

8.9 yards to go on 3rd down

73 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

DEL		STON
559	Total yards	327
414	Passing yards	163
145	Rushing yards	164
28	First downs	20
3-12	3rd down	4-13
2-4	4th down	0-2
28/45	Comp/Att	14/41
9.2	Yards per pass	4.0
4.3	Yards per rush	5.5
4	Turnovers	3
2-30	Penalties	2-15
31:19	Possession	28:41

Fourth downs

15 calls

DEL

5/5 with the model

nothing given up

STON

7/8 with the model

−0.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q1 6:40 STON punt on 4th & 2 at STON 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.13 points.

Every call, priced (15)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

DEL 5/12 scoring drives← own end zone →STON 4/13 scoring drives

DELMISS13 pl, 59 yds· own 15Q1

STONPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 26Q1

DELTD8 pl, 85 yds· own 15Q1

STONPUNT6 pl, 10 yds· own 17Q1

DELINT3 pl, 0 yds· own 29Q1

STONFG7 pl, 16 yds· opp 23Q2

DELFG10 pl, 60 yds· own 23Q2

STONPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 22Q2

DELINT7 pl, 11 yds· own 44Q2

STONPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 34Q2

DELTD9 pl, 84 yds· own 16Q2

STONEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 35Q2

STONMISS7 pl, 50 yds· own 21Q3

DELTD2 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q3

STONTD7 pl, 84 yds· own 16Q3

DELDOWNS6 pl, 24 yds· own 26Q3

STONFG9 pl, 42 yds· midfieldQ3

DELINT5 pl, 26 yds· own 25Q3

STONDOWNS6 pl, 26 yds· own 35Q3

DELTD7 pl, 61 yds· own 39Q4

STONTD5 pl, 32 yds· own 25Q4

STONINT8 pl, 46 yds· own 25Q4

DELDOWNS10 pl, 44 yds· own 1Q4

STONDOWNS9 pl, 34 yds· opp 45Q4

DELEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 11Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 10:12DELTy Davis 50 Yd Interception Return (Nate Reed PAT failed)37–13
• Q4 11:37DELKyron Cumby 13 Yd Run (Nate Reed Kick)31–13
• Q3 4:50STONSpencer Biscoe 25 Yd Field Goal 24–13
• Q3 9:13STONRoland Dempster 1 Yd Run (Spencer Biscoe Kick)24–10
• Q3 12:38DELMarcus Yarns 53 Yd Run (Nate Reed Kick)24–3
• Q2 0:35DELMarcus Yarns 5 Yd Run (Nate Reed Kick)17–3
• Q2 7:31DELNate Reed 34 Yd Field Goal 10–3
• Q2 11:59STONSpencer Biscoe 24 Yd Field Goal 7–3
• Q1 3:11DELKym Wimberly 14 Yd pass from Ryan O'Connor (Nate Reed Kick)7–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →