BYU vs. Kansas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BYUTeam statsKU
- Q4 1:33KUSeth Keller 23 Yd Field Goal 27–38
- Q4 8:02BYUKeelan Marion 6 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)27–35
- Q4 13:36KULuke Grimm 13 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Seth Keller Kick)20–35
- Q3 4:53KULuke Grimm 5 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Seth Keller Kick)20–28
- Q3 10:55BYUWill Ferrin 34 Yd Field Goal 20–21
- Q3 14:38KUKenny Logan Jr. 30 Yd Interception Return (Seth Keller Kick)17–21
- Q2 0:13BYUWill Ferrin 33 Yd Field Goal 17–14
- Q2 11:00BYULJ Martin 10 Yd pass from Kedon Slovis (Will Ferrin Kick)14–14
- Q1 1:33KUTrevor Kardell 15 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Seth Keller Kick)7–14
- Q1 5:48BYUDarius Lassiter 7 Yd pass from Kedon Slovis (Will Ferrin Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:38KUCobee Bryant 22 Yd Fumble Return (Seth Keller Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassKedon Slovis 30/51, 357 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushLJ Martin 11 CAR, 28 YDS
- RecChase Roberts 5 REC, 89 YDS
- PassJalon Daniels 14/19, 130 YDS, 3 TD
- RushDevin Neal 17 CAR, 91 YDS
- RecLawrence Arnold 4 REC, 34 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsKU up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,586 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 4:53KU +26%
Luke Grimm 5 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Seth Keller Kick)
- Q3 14:38KU +24%
Kenny Logan Jr. 30 Yd Interception Return (Seth Keller Kick)
- Q2 11:00BYU +22%
LJ Martin 10 Yd pass from Kedon Slovis (Will Ferrin Kick)
- Q1 1:33KU +19%
Trevor Kardell 15 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Seth Keller Kick)
- Q1 5:48BYU +19%
Darius Lassiter 7 Yd pass from Kedon Slovis (Will Ferrin Kick)
- Q1 10:38KU +18%
Cobee Bryant 22 Yd Fumble Return (Seth Keller Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of BYU vs. Kansas?
BYU 27, Kansas 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BYU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BYU | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| 366 | Total yards | 351 |
| 357 | Passing yards | 130 |
| 9 | Rushing yards | 221 |
| 23 | First downs | 23 |
| 6-14 | 3rd down | 4-8 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 30/51 | Comp/Att | 14/19 |
| 7.0 | Yards per pass | 6.8 |
| 0.4 | Yards per rush | 6.0 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 3-30 | Penalties | 7-70 |
| 30:05 | Possession | 29:55 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:13 BYU field goal on 4th & 2 at KU 16. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.31 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:33KUSeth Keller 23 Yd Field Goal 27–38
- Q4 8:02BYUKeelan Marion 6 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)27–35
- Q4 13:36KULuke Grimm 13 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Seth Keller Kick)20–35
- Q3 4:53KULuke Grimm 5 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Seth Keller Kick)20–28
- Q3 10:55BYUWill Ferrin 34 Yd Field Goal 20–21
- Q3 14:38KUKenny Logan Jr. 30 Yd Interception Return (Seth Keller Kick)17–21
- Q2 0:13BYUWill Ferrin 33 Yd Field Goal 17–14
- Q2 11:00BYULJ Martin 10 Yd pass from Kedon Slovis (Will Ferrin Kick)14–14
- Q1 1:33KUTrevor Kardell 15 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Seth Keller Kick)7–14
- Q1 5:48BYUDarius Lassiter 7 Yd pass from Kedon Slovis (Will Ferrin Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:38KUCobee Bryant 22 Yd Fumble Return (Seth Keller Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KU Elo 1451, BYU Elo 1565 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KU +2.2 (45% to win) — 11.7 points clear of BYU's market line of -9.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| BYU | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.3 (#90) | CORE overall | +17.7 (#14) |
| -9 / -3 | offense / defense | +18 / +0 |
| 1.29 | points / drive | 3.11 |
| 2.22 | allowed / drive | 2.31 |
| 36% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →