#2Chase Roberts

WR·BYU·2025

Chase Roberts is a Versatile WR for BYU. Chase's 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 93 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Chase Roberts's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

54 Receptions802 Rec yards6 Rec TD14.9 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume31
Explosiveness52
Consistency59
Pass-Down71

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency59th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.26 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 2.19 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs West Virginia (SP+ -7).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Keytaon Thompson	Mississippi State	2017	70	0.460	1.2	32.2
Savion Williams	TCU	2024	56	0.450	1.1	25.2
DeAndre Hughes	Air Force	2021	60	0.470	1.3	28.2
Javion Posey	Florida Atlantic	2020	53	0.450	1.4	23.8
Quadree Henderson	Pittsburgh	2016	63	0.530	1.6	33.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsPortland State	W69-0	—	1	4	4.0	1	4	0.45
2	vsStanford	W27-3	-11.8	5	84	16.8	0	41	0.77
4	@East Carolina	W34-13	8.0	5	97	19.4	0	40	0.61
5	@Colorado	W24-21	-8.3	5	49	9.8	2	16	0.71
6	vsWest Virginia	W38-24	-6.8	4	161	40.3	0	85	2.19
7	@Arizona	W33-27	12.0	2	25	12.5	0	17	-0.16
8	vsUtah	W24-21	22.2	2	43	21.5	1	26	-0.72
9	@Iowa State	W41-27	9.9	8	128	16.0	0	45	1.24
11	@Texas Tech	L7-29	27.6	6	61	10.2	1	14	0.37
12	vsTCU	W44-13	8.3	5	50	10.0	0	13	0.38
13	@Cincinnati	W26-14	4.5	1	11	11.0	0	11	-0.28
15	vsTexas Tech	L7-34	27.6	3	32	10.7	0	18	0.79
20	vsGeorgia Tech	W25-21	9.3	7	57	8.1	1	18	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

10.7%

Passing plays

24.7%

Rushing plays

0.0%

Standard downs

10.2%

Passing downs

12.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.45
Passing downs: 0.58
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.49 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).