Bucknell vs. James Madison: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Bucknell

03

James Madison

▸0038

Final

Bridgeforth Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
BUCK	0	3	0	0	3
JMU	3	14	7	14	38

BUCKTeam statsJMU

208Total yards436

146Pass175

62Rush261

9First downs22

3-153rd down5-12

1Turnovers1

32:07Possession27:53

Scoring plays

• Q4 6:35JMUMaxwell Moss 13 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Camden Wise Kick)3–38
• Q4 11:28JMUReggie Brown 57 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Camden Wise Kick)3–31
• Q3 4:45JMUTy Son Lawton 5 Yd Run (Camden Wise Kick)3–24
• Q2 0:00BUCKMatt Schearer 49 Yd Field Goal 3–17
• Q2 2:02JMULatrele Palmer 13 Yd Run (Camden Wise Kick)0–17
• Q2 14:26JMUAlonza Barnett III 9 Yd Run (Camden Wise Kick)0–10
• Q1 7:45JMUCamden Wise 36 Yd Field Goal 0–3

How the model called it

Market line

JMU −47

Against the number

BUCK covered

line JMU −47

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

JMU 100%50%BUCK 100%

Kickoff147 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

JMU (top)BUCK (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: JMU 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

JMU −47

Closing total

53.5

Model line

—

Actual result

BUCK 3 – 38 JMU

Leaders

Bucknell

• PassRalph Rucker IV 13/19, 140 YDS
• RushRushawn Baker 11 CAR, 43 YDS
• RecDamian Harris 3 REC, 61 YDS

James Madison

• PassJordan McCloud 7/11, 144 YDS, 2 TD
• RushKaelon Black 12 CAR, 125 YDS
• RecReggie Brown 3 REC, 77 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

28.1sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

128

Points / snap

0.32

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

JMU up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 668 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

99%

JMU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WUtah vs Florida24-11WMiami vs Miami (OH)38-3WTroy vs Stephen F. Austin48-30WNorthwestern vs UTEP38-7WWyoming vs Portland State31-17

Fourth downs

18 calls

JMU gave up 0.1 points to the model on fourth down.BUCK 11/11 · JMU 5/6 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Bucknell vs. James Madison?

Bucknell 3, James Madison 38.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (JMU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

BUCK

JMU

20%

Success rate

50%

0.00

EPA / pass

0.08

-0.32

EPA / rush

0.20

24%

Early-down success

54%

25%

Pass success

46%

16%

Rush success

53%

7%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

13%

31%

Stuffed rush rate

20%

47%

Pass rate

41%

8.3

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.6

BUCK

8.3 yards to go on 3rd down

60 scrimmage snaps

JMU

6.6 yards to go on 3rd down

68 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

BUCK		JMU
208	Total yards	436
146	Passing yards	175
62	Rushing yards	261
9	First downs	22
3-15	3rd down	5-12
0-1	4th down	0-2
15/23	Comp/Att	12/24
6.3	Yards per pass	7.3
1.8	Yards per rush	6.4
1	Turnovers	1
7-70	Penalties	4-25
32:07	Possession	27:53

Fourth downs

18 calls

BUCK

11/11 with the model

nothing given up

JMU

5/6 with the model

−0.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q1 1:52 JMU go for it on 4th & 6 at BUCK 6. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.10 points.

Every call, priced (18)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

BUCK 1/13 scoring drives← own end zone →JMU 6/13 scoring drives

BUCKFUM4 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q1

JMUINT3 pl, -3 yds· opp 33Q1

BUCKPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 27Q1

JMUFG8 pl, 24 yds· opp 42Q1

BUCKPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q1

JMUDOWNS8 pl, 39 yds· opp 45Q1

BUCKDOWNS7 pl, 71 yds· own 6Q1

JMUTD3 pl, 77 yds· own 23Q1

BUCKPUNT9 pl, 24 yds· own 25Q2

JMUPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 35Q2

BUCKPUNT6 pl, 20 yds· own 1Q2

JMUTD4 pl, 45 yds· opp 45Q2

BUCKFG7 pl, 43 yds· own 25Q2

JMUPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q3

BUCKPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 34Q3

JMUDOWNS6 pl, 13 yds· opp 17Q3

BUCKPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 4Q3

JMUTD5 pl, 43 yds· opp 43Q3

BUCKPUNT3 pl, -6 yds· own 25Q3

JMUPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 39Q3

BUCKPUNT4 pl, 11 yds· own 20Q3

JMUTD4 pl, 84 yds· own 16Q4

BUCKPUNT3 pl, -9 yds· own 25Q4

JMUTD7 pl, 55 yds· own 45Q4

BUCKPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q4

JMUEND9 pl, 62 yds· own 36Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 6:35JMUMaxwell Moss 13 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Camden Wise Kick)3–38
• Q4 11:28JMUReggie Brown 57 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Camden Wise Kick)3–31
• Q3 4:45JMUTy Son Lawton 5 Yd Run (Camden Wise Kick)3–24
• Q2 0:00BUCKMatt Schearer 49 Yd Field Goal 3–17
• Q2 2:02JMULatrele Palmer 13 Yd Run (Camden Wise Kick)0–17
• Q2 14:26JMUAlonza Barnett III 9 Yd Run (Camden Wise Kick)0–10
• Q1 7:45JMUCamden Wise 36 Yd Field Goal 0–3

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →