Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TTUTeam statsMISS
- Q4 3:03TTULoic Fouonji 44 Yd Kickoff Return (Trey Wolff Kick)42–25
- Q4 3:10MISSMalik Heath 19 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)35–25
- Q4 7:35MISSJaxson Dart 9 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)35–19
- Q4 9:36TTUTrey Wolff 26 Yd Field Goal 35–13
- Q4 13:20TTUSaRodorick Thompson 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)32–13
- Q3 9:08MISSJordan Watkins 11 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Jonathan Cruz PAT failed)26–13
- Q2 0:28TTUJerand Bradley 12 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)26–7
- Q2 2:13TTUTrey Wolff 32 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q2 6:59TTUTyler Shough 2 Yd Run (Trey Wolff Kick)17–7
- Q1 3:23TTUTrey Wolff 42 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 5:26MISSZach Evans 8 Yd Run (Jonathan Cruz Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:43TTUTyler Shough 2 Yd Run (Trey Wolff Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassTyler Shough 24/39, 242 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushTyler Shough 25 CAR, 111 YDS, 2 TD
- RecLoic Fouonji 7 REC, 100 YDS
- PassJaxson Dart 25/41, 361 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- RushQuinshon Judkins 23 CAR, 91 YDS
- RecMalik Heath 8 REC, 137 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTTU up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 6:59TTU +20%
Tyler Shough run for 2 yds for a TD (Trey Wolff KICK)
- Q1 5:26MISS +19%
Zach Evans run for 8 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK)
- Q1 6:43TTU +19%
Tyler Shough run for 2 yds for a TD (Trey Wolff KICK)
- Q2 2:13TTU +13%
Trey Wolff 32 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 3:23TTU +10%
Trey Wolff 42 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 9:08MISS +10%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 11 yds for a TD OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Malik Heath) to the TexTc 8 (Jonathan Cruz PAT MISSED)
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss?
Texas Tech 42, Ole Miss 25.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MISS, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TTU | MISS | |
|---|---|---|
| 484 | Total yards | 558 |
| 242 | Passing yards | 361 |
| 242 | Rushing yards | 197 |
| 27 | First downs | 27 |
| 7-19 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 5-6 | 4th down | 2-7 |
| 24/40 | Comp/Att | 25/41 |
| 6.1 | Yards per pass | 8.8 |
| 5.0 | Yards per rush | 4.6 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 3-15 | Penalties | 8-86 |
| 33:17 | Possession | 26:43 |
Costliest call
Q2 6:24 MISS go for it on 4th & 6 at MISS 29. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.49 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:03TTULoic Fouonji 44 Yd Kickoff Return (Trey Wolff Kick)42–25
- Q4 3:10MISSMalik Heath 19 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)35–25
- Q4 7:35MISSJaxson Dart 9 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)35–19
- Q4 9:36TTUTrey Wolff 26 Yd Field Goal 35–13
- Q4 13:20TTUSaRodorick Thompson 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)32–13
- Q3 9:08MISSJordan Watkins 11 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Jonathan Cruz PAT failed)26–13
- Q2 0:28TTUJerand Bradley 12 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)26–7
- Q2 2:13TTUTrey Wolff 32 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q2 6:59TTUTyler Shough 2 Yd Run (Trey Wolff Kick)17–7
- Q1 3:23TTUTrey Wolff 42 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 5:26MISSZach Evans 8 Yd Run (Jonathan Cruz Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:43TTUTyler Shough 2 Yd Run (Trey Wolff Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MISS Elo 1676, TTU Elo 1591 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects MISS -3.4 (60% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#58 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #86 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds · #44 of 62 in 2022 by biggest poll gap.
The 2022 upset archive →| TTU | MISS | |
|---|---|---|
| +4.3 (#53) | CORE overall | +12.0 (#25) |
| -2 / -6 | offense / defense | +11 / -1 |
| 2.24 | points / drive | 2.76 |
| 2.28 | allowed / drive | 2.29 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| +7 | pass over expected | -7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →