Utah State vs. San José State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USUTeam statsSJSU
- Q4 5:21USUCalvin Tyler Jr. 6 Yd Run (Connor Coles Kick)48–17
- Q4 6:28USUConnor Coles 40 Yd Field Goal 41–17
- Q4 10:17USUDerek Wright 41 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick)38–17
- Q3 7:12USUBrandon Bowling 5 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick)31–17
- Q3 9:32SJSUMatt Mercurio 44 Yd Field Goal 24–17
- Q2 0:00USUConnor Coles 32 Yd Field Goal 24–14
- Q2 5:54USUElelyon Noa 3 Yd Run (Connor Coles Kick)21–14
- Q2 9:55USUDerek Wright 4 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick)14–14
- Q2 12:40USUSavon Scarver 2 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick)7–14
- Q2 14:26SJSUTyler Nevens 1 Yd Run (Matt Mercurio Kick)0–14
- Q1 1:10SJSUKenyon Reed 58 Yd Interception Return (Matt Mercurio Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassLogan Bonner 20/33, 263 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- RushCalvin Tyler Jr. 21 CAR, 61 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDeven Thompkins 5 REC, 127 YDS
- PassNick Starkel 19/29, 138 YDS, 1 INT
- RushNick Nash 7 CAR, 16 YDS
- RecIsaiah Hamilton 4 REC, 43 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 5:54USU +22%
Elelyon Noa run for 3 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)
- Q2 9:55USU +20%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 4 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)
- Q1 1:10SJSU +19%
Kenyon Reed 58 Yd Interception Return (Matt Mercurio Kick)
- Q3 7:12USU +17%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 5 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)
- Q2 12:40USU +14%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Savon Scarver for 2 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)
- Q2 14:26SJSU +14%
Tyler Nevens run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Utah State vs. San José State?
Utah State 48, San José State 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SJSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| USU | SJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 410 | Total yards | 150 |
| 263 | Passing yards | 138 |
| 147 | Rushing yards | 12 |
| 23 | First downs | 10 |
| 8-17 | 3rd down | 1-12 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 20/34 | Comp/Att | 19/32 |
| 7.7 | Yards per pass | 4.3 |
| 3.1 | Yards per rush | 0.5 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 5-33 | Penalties | 8-100 |
| 37:03 | Possession | 22:57 |
Costliest call
Q3 5:11 SJSU punt on 4th & 1 at SJSU 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.15 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:21USUCalvin Tyler Jr. 6 Yd Run (Connor Coles Kick)48–17
- Q4 6:28USUConnor Coles 40 Yd Field Goal 41–17
- Q4 10:17USUDerek Wright 41 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick)38–17
- Q3 7:12USUBrandon Bowling 5 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick)31–17
- Q3 9:32SJSUMatt Mercurio 44 Yd Field Goal 24–17
- Q2 0:00USUConnor Coles 32 Yd Field Goal 24–14
- Q2 5:54USUElelyon Noa 3 Yd Run (Connor Coles Kick)21–14
- Q2 9:55USUDerek Wright 4 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick)14–14
- Q2 12:40USUSavon Scarver 2 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick)7–14
- Q2 14:26SJSUTyler Nevens 1 Yd Run (Matt Mercurio Kick)0–14
- Q1 1:10SJSUKenyon Reed 58 Yd Interception Return (Matt Mercurio Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SJSU Elo 1395, USU Elo 1418 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SJSU -1.5 (55% to win) — 3.0 points clear of USU's market line of -4.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#14 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #84 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →The series is level at 21–21–1 · 37% have been one-possession games
| USU | SJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.0 (#65) | CORE overall | -5.8 (#90) |
| +1 / -1 | offense / defense | -11 / -5 |
| 2.47 | points / drive | 1.30 |
| 1.95 | allowed / drive | 2.17 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 33% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →