Maryland vs. Rutgers: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MDTeam statsRUTG
- Q4 6:17MDTayon Fleet-Davis 2 Yd Run (Joseph Petrino Kick)40–16
- Q4 14:51MDTayon Fleet-Davis 13 Yd Run (Joseph Petrino Kick)33–16
- Q3 6:18RUTGAaron Young 3 Yd Run (Valentino Ambrosio Kick)26–16
- Q3 8:53MDCorey Dyches 11 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Joseph Petrino PAT failed)26–9
- Q3 11:34RUTGJohnny Langan 1 Yd Run (Valentino Ambrosio Kick)20–9
- Q2 4:13MDTaulia Tagovailoa 10 Yd Run (Joseph Petrino Kick)20–2
- Q1 6:32RUTGKessawn Abraham Defensive PAT Conversion13–2
- Q1 6:32MDBrian Cobbs 38 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Joseph Petrino PAT blocked)13–0
- Q1 11:42MDCorey Dyches 25 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Joseph Petrino Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassTaulia Tagovailoa 21/30, 312 YDS, 3 TD
- RushTayon Fleet-Davis 18 CAR, 152 YDS, 2 TD
- RecRakim Jarrett 7 REC, 111 YDS
- PassEvan Simon 7/14, 86 YDS
- RushIsiah Pacheco 15 CAR, 86 YDS
- RecIsaiah Washington 4 REC, 56 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMD up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 11:42MD +18%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 25 yds for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK)
- Q3 6:18RUTG +16%
Aaron Young 3 Yd Run (Valentino Ambrosio Kick)
- Q3 11:34RUTG +15%
Johnny Langan 1 Yd Run (Valentino Ambrosio Kick)
- Q3 8:53MD +15%
Corey Dyches 11 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Joseph Petrino PAT failed)
- Q1 6:24MD +13%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aaron Young for 5 yds to the Mary 3
- Q1 6:32MD +12%
Kessawn Abraham Defensive PAT Conversion
FAQ
What was the final score of Maryland vs. Rutgers?
Maryland 40, Rutgers 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked RUTG, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MD | RUTG | |
|---|---|---|
| 575 | Total yards | 327 |
| 312 | Passing yards | 173 |
| 263 | Rushing yards | 164 |
| 27 | First downs | 15 |
| 9-15 | 3rd down | 2-11 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-4 |
| 21/30 | Comp/Att | 16/30 |
| 10.4 | Yards per pass | 5.8 |
| 5.8 | Yards per rush | 4.8 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-38 | Penalties | 1-8 |
| 33:40 | Possession | 26:20 |
Costliest call
Q1 0:00 MD punt on 4th & 1 at MD 12. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:17MDTayon Fleet-Davis 2 Yd Run (Joseph Petrino Kick)40–16
- Q4 14:51MDTayon Fleet-Davis 13 Yd Run (Joseph Petrino Kick)33–16
- Q3 6:18RUTGAaron Young 3 Yd Run (Valentino Ambrosio Kick)26–16
- Q3 8:53MDCorey Dyches 11 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Joseph Petrino PAT failed)26–9
- Q3 11:34RUTGJohnny Langan 1 Yd Run (Valentino Ambrosio Kick)20–9
- Q2 4:13MDTaulia Tagovailoa 10 Yd Run (Joseph Petrino Kick)20–2
- Q1 6:32RUTGKessawn Abraham Defensive PAT Conversion13–2
- Q1 6:32MDBrian Cobbs 38 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Joseph Petrino PAT blocked)13–0
- Q1 11:42MDCorey Dyches 25 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Joseph Petrino Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (RUTG Elo 1409, MD Elo 1256 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects RUTG -8.5 (72% to win) — 6.5 points clear of RUTG's market line of -2. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#45 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #105 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →Maryland leads 12–9 · Rutgers has won 2 straight · 33% have been one-possession games
| MD | RUTG | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.8 (#50) | CORE overall | -18.9 (#111) |
| +8 / +1 | offense / defense | -17 / +2 |
| 2.06 | points / drive | 1.35 |
| 2.68 | allowed / drive | 2.10 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +12 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →