New Mexico vs. UNLV: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNMTeam statsUNLV
- Q4 4:43UNLVDarren Woods Jr. 11 Yd pass from Max Gilliam (Evan Pantels Kick)50–14
- Q4 7:57UNMZahneer Shuler 2 Yd Run (Andrew Shelley Kick)50–7
- Q4 11:07UNMDelane Hart-Johnson 11 Yd pass from Sheriron Jones (Andrew Shelley Kick)43–7
- Q4 14:46UNLVBrandon Presley 19 Yd pass from Max Gilliam (Evan Pantels Kick)36–7
- Q3 2:25UNMEmmanuel Harris 33 Yd pass from Sheriron Jones (Andrew Shelley Kick)36–0
- Q2 0:17UNMAnselem Umeh 26 Yd pass from Sheriron Jones (Andrew Shelley Kick)29–0
- Q2 2:56UNMElijah Lilly 74 Yd pass from Sheriron Jones (Andrew Shelley Kick)22–0
- Q2 4:37UNMAndrew Shelley 43 Yd Field Goal 15–0
- Q2 9:34UNMTyrone Owens 1 Yd Run (Andrew Shelley PAT failed)12–0
- Q2 14:57UNMZahneer Shuler 1 Yd Run (Andrew Shelley PAT blocked)6–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UNLV played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UNM did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.1 vs 3rd & 4.7
- PassSheriron Jones 13/20, 250 YDS, 4 TD
- RushSheriron Jones 9 CAR, 72 YDS
- RecDelane Hart-Johnson 6 REC, 80 YDS, 1 TD
- PassMax Gilliam 15/35, 123 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushLexington Thomas 6 CAR, 36 YDS
- RecBrandon Presley 4 REC, 53 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNM up 36 entering the 4th quarter. Across 339 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 9:34UNM +19%
Tyrone Owens run for 1 yd for a TD (Andrew Shelley PAT MISSED)
- Q2 14:57UNM +18%
Zahneer Shuler run for 1 yd for a TD (Andrew Shelley PAT BLOCKED)
- Q2 2:56UNM +10%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Elijah Lilly for 74 yds for a TD (Andrew Shelley KICK)
- Q2 4:37UNM +9%
Andrew Shelley 43 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of New Mexico vs. UNLV?
New Mexico 50, UNLV 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UNLV, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UNM | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| 502 | Total yards | 166 |
| 250 | Passing yards | 123 |
| 252 | Rushing yards | 43 |
| 25 | First downs | 13 |
| 10-18 | 3rd down | 3-15 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 13/21 | Comp/Att | 15/35 |
| 11.9 | Yards per pass | 3.5 |
| 4.2 | Yards per rush | 1.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 3-40 | Penalties | 3-25 |
| 36:48 | Possession | 23:12 |
Costliest call
Q4 15:00 UNLV go for it on 4th & 17 at UNM 34. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.68 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:43UNLVDarren Woods Jr. 11 Yd pass from Max Gilliam (Evan Pantels Kick)50–14
- Q4 7:57UNMZahneer Shuler 2 Yd Run (Andrew Shelley Kick)50–7
- Q4 11:07UNMDelane Hart-Johnson 11 Yd pass from Sheriron Jones (Andrew Shelley Kick)43–7
- Q4 14:46UNLVBrandon Presley 19 Yd pass from Max Gilliam (Evan Pantels Kick)36–7
- Q3 2:25UNMEmmanuel Harris 33 Yd pass from Sheriron Jones (Andrew Shelley Kick)36–0
- Q2 0:17UNMAnselem Umeh 26 Yd pass from Sheriron Jones (Andrew Shelley Kick)29–0
- Q2 2:56UNMElijah Lilly 74 Yd pass from Sheriron Jones (Andrew Shelley Kick)22–0
- Q2 4:37UNMAndrew Shelley 43 Yd Field Goal 15–0
- Q2 9:34UNMTyrone Owens 1 Yd Run (Andrew Shelley PAT failed)12–0
- Q2 14:57UNMZahneer Shuler 1 Yd Run (Andrew Shelley PAT blocked)6–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNLV Elo 1375, UNM Elo 1271 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNLV -6.6 (68% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#3 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #52 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds.
The 2018 upset archive →UNLV leads 15–13 · 46% have been one-possession games
| UNM | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| -22.7 (#125) | CORE overall | -18.3 (#114) |
| -12 / +11 | offense / defense | -4 / +15 |
| 1.58 | points / drive | 2.06 |
| 2.66 | allowed / drive | 3.00 |
| 39% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| -10 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →