Georgia Tech vs. Virginia Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GTTeam statsVT
- Q4 3:48VTJalen Holston 1 Yd Run (Brian Johnson Kick)49–28
- Q4 6:23GTJordan Mason 1 Yd Run (Wesley Wells Kick)49–21
- Q3 3:02GTJordan Mason 14 Yd Run (Wesley Wells Kick)42–21
- Q3 9:14GTTobias Oliver 11 Yd Run (Wesley Wells Kick)35–21
- Q2 1:27GTTobias Oliver 5 Yd Run (Wesley Wells Kick)28–21
- Q2 6:57GTJordan Mason 5 Yd Run (Wesley Wells Kick)21–21
- Q2 10:30VTRyan Willis 1 Yd Run (Brian Johnson Kick)14–21
- Q1 0:15GTTobias Oliver 1 Yd Run (Wesley Wells Kick)14–14
- Q1 5:52VTDamon Hazelton 41 Yd pass from Ryan Willis (Brian Johnson Kick)7–14
- Q1 6:56GTJerry Howard 8 Yd Run (Wesley Wells Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:26VTTre Turner 46 Yd pass from Ryan Willis (Brian Johnson Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- VT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and GT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.2 vs 3rd & 6.1
- PassTobias Oliver 0/1, 0 YDS
- RushTobias Oliver 40 CAR, 215 YDS, 3 TD
- PassRyan Willis 15/22, 201 YDS, 2 TD
- RushSteven Peoples 6 CAR, 51 YDS
- RecDamon Hazelton 6 REC, 81 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsGT up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:27GT +24%
Tobias Oliver 5 Yd Run (Wesley Wells Kick)
- Q2 6:57GT +20%
Jordan Mason 5 Yd Run (Wesley Wells Kick)
- Q3 9:14GT +20%
Tobias Oliver 11 Yd Run (Wesley Wells Kick)
- Q2 10:30VT +19%
Ryan Willis 1 Yd Run (Brian Johnson Kick)
- Q1 0:15GT +18%
Tobias Oliver 1 Yd Run (Wesley Wells Kick)
- Q1 5:52VT +18%
Damon Hazelton 41 Yd pass from Ryan Willis (Brian Johnson Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia Tech vs. Virginia Tech?
Georgia Tech 49, Virginia Tech 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked VT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| GT | VT | |
|---|---|---|
| 465 | Total yards | 323 |
| -5 | Passing yards | 201 |
| 465 | Rushing yards | 122 |
| 35 | First downs | 16 |
| 5-9 | 3rd down | 2-8 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 0/1 | Comp/Att | 15/22 |
| 0.0 | Yards per pass | 9.1 |
| 6.0 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-50 | Penalties | 8-87 |
| 42:18 | Possession | 17:42 |
Costliest call
Q2 5:35 VT punt on 4th & 2 at VT 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.13 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:48VTJalen Holston 1 Yd Run (Brian Johnson Kick)49–28
- Q4 6:23GTJordan Mason 1 Yd Run (Wesley Wells Kick)49–21
- Q3 3:02GTJordan Mason 14 Yd Run (Wesley Wells Kick)42–21
- Q3 9:14GTTobias Oliver 11 Yd Run (Wesley Wells Kick)35–21
- Q2 1:27GTTobias Oliver 5 Yd Run (Wesley Wells Kick)28–21
- Q2 6:57GTJordan Mason 5 Yd Run (Wesley Wells Kick)21–21
- Q2 10:30VTRyan Willis 1 Yd Run (Brian Johnson Kick)14–21
- Q1 0:15GTTobias Oliver 1 Yd Run (Wesley Wells Kick)14–14
- Q1 5:52VTDamon Hazelton 41 Yd pass from Ryan Willis (Brian Johnson Kick)7–14
- Q1 6:56GTJerry Howard 8 Yd Run (Wesley Wells Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:26VTTre Turner 46 Yd pass from Ryan Willis (Brian Johnson Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (VT Elo 1662, GT Elo 1648 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects VT -3 (59% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#53 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #93 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds.
The 2018 upset archive →Virginia Tech leads 12–9 · 48% have been one-possession games
| GT | VT | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.6 (#75) | CORE overall | -3.4 (#84) |
| +9 / +11 | offense / defense | +3 / +6 |
| 3.17 | points / drive | 2.08 |
| 2.85 | allowed / drive | 2.44 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -33 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →