#5Ryan Willis

QB·Virginia Tech·20187.8 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Ryan Willis is a Dual-Threat QB for Virginia Tech. Ryan's 2018 season ranks in the 40th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 446 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Ryan Willis's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Passing

213/364 Comp/Att2716 Pass yards24 Pass TD9 INT58.5% Comp %

Rushing

354 Rush yards4 Rush TD113 Carries3.1 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs QB peers

Efficiency40
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency81
Clutch88

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)40th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency81th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.21 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.83 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Duke (SP+ 5).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
2	vsWilliam & Mary	W62-17	—	4/7	64	0	0	7	1	0.51
4	@Old Dominion	L35-49	-14.1	9/18	131	1	0	30	0	0.27
5	@Duke	W31-14	5.0	17/27	332	3	0	5	0	0.83
6	vsNotre Dame	L23-45	20.7	31/52	309	2	1	16	0	0.22
7	@North Carolina	W22-19	-2.5	20/36	221	2	2	88	1	0.30
9	vsGeorgia Tech	L28-49	0.3	15/22	201	2	0	22	1	0.48
10	vsBoston College	L21-31	2.4	25/42	281	3	1	49	0	0.34
11	@Pittsburgh	L22-52	2.7	22/34	231	3	0	65	0	0.26
12	vsMiami	L14-38	12.7	18/36	216	1	2	13	0	0.01
13	vsVirginia	W34-31	7.1	14/33	199	1	2	41	0	0.11
14	vsMarshall	W41-20	1.0	18/26	312	4	0	-15	0	0.48
1	vsCincinnati	L31-35	5.4	20/31	219	2	1	33	1	0.15

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

53.3%

Passing plays

90.3%

Rushing plays

20.0%

Standard downs

46.2%

Passing downs

67.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.22
Passing downs: 0.46
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.29 / 0.42

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.