Akron vs. Northwestern: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
AKRTeam statsNU
- Q4 2:21NUBennett Skowronek 24 Yd pass from Clayton Thorson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)39–34
- Q4 7:24AKRAlvin Davis 50 Yd Interception Return (Nick Gasser Kick)39–28
- Q4 8:28AKRUlysees Gilbert III 0 Yd Fumble Return (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)32–28
- Q3 0:24AKRMaverick Wolfley 24 Yd pass from Kato Nelson (Nick Gasser Kick)26–28
- Q3 1:08NUCameron Green 13 Yd pass from Clayton Thorson (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)19–28
- Q3 3:14AKRAlvin Davis 97 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)19–21
- Q3 6:49AKRAndre Williams 25 Yd pass from Kato Nelson (Nick Gasser Kick)13–21
- Q3 11:50AKRNick Gasser 24 Yd Field Goal 6–21
- Q2 0:07NUCameron Green 21 Yd pass from Clayton Thorson (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)3–21
- Q2 0:39AKRNick Gasser 37 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q2 7:21NUJeremy Larkin 5 Yd Run (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)0–14
- Q1 6:52NUJeremy Larkin 7 Yd Run (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- AKR played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and NU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.5 vs 3rd & 6.4
- PassKato Nelson 17/28, 277 YDS, 2 TD
- RushVan Edwards Jr. 14 CAR, 53 YDS
- RecKwadarrius Smith 6 REC, 90 YDS
- PassClayton Thorson 33/52, 383 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushJeremy Larkin 22 CAR, 82 YDS, 2 TD
- RecCameron Green 11 REC, 125 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNU up 2 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,937 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 7:24AKR +42%
Clayton Thorson pass intercepted for a TD Alvin Davis return for 50 yds for a TD (Nick Gasser KICK)
- Q4 8:28AKR +34%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Josh Ward for a loss of 8 yards Clayton Thorson fumbled, recovered by Akron Ulysees Gilbert III, return for 0 yards for a TD (Kato Nelson fum…
- Q4 2:18AKR +24%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Andre Williams
- Q3 0:24AKR +22%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Maverick Wolfley for 24 yds for a TD (Nick Gasser KICK)
- Q4 2:21NU +17%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 24 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
- Q3 1:08NU +13%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 13 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Akron vs. Northwestern?
Akron 39, Northwestern 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| AKR | NU | |
|---|---|---|
| 367 | Total yards | 491 |
| 277 | Passing yards | 405 |
| 90 | Rushing yards | 86 |
| 15 | First downs | 29 |
| 4-16 | 3rd down | 6-18 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 1-5 |
| 17/28 | Comp/Att | 37/58 |
| 9.9 | Yards per pass | 7.0 |
| 2.5 | Yards per rush | 2.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 15-140 | Penalties | 3-35 |
| 30:10 | Possession | 29:50 |
Costliest call
Q3 11:50 NU punt on 4th & 1 at NU 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.18 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:21NUBennett Skowronek 24 Yd pass from Clayton Thorson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)39–34
- Q4 7:24AKRAlvin Davis 50 Yd Interception Return (Nick Gasser Kick)39–28
- Q4 8:28AKRUlysees Gilbert III 0 Yd Fumble Return (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)32–28
- Q3 0:24AKRMaverick Wolfley 24 Yd pass from Kato Nelson (Nick Gasser Kick)26–28
- Q3 1:08NUCameron Green 13 Yd pass from Clayton Thorson (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)19–28
- Q3 3:14AKRAlvin Davis 97 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)19–21
- Q3 6:49AKRAndre Williams 25 Yd pass from Kato Nelson (Nick Gasser Kick)13–21
- Q3 11:50AKRNick Gasser 24 Yd Field Goal 6–21
- Q2 0:07NUCameron Green 21 Yd pass from Clayton Thorson (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)3–21
- Q2 0:39AKRNick Gasser 37 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q2 7:21NUJeremy Larkin 5 Yd Run (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)0–14
- Q1 6:52NUJeremy Larkin 7 Yd Run (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NU Elo 1651, AKR Elo 1277 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NU -17.4 (87% to win) — 3.6 points clear of AKR's market line of -21. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#47 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #5 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds.
The 2018 upset archive →| AKR | NU | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.3 (#108) | CORE overall | -3.6 (#87) |
| -16 / -1 | offense / defense | -8 / -4 |
| 1.01 | points / drive | 1.75 |
| 1.92 | allowed / drive | 1.63 |
| 35% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →