Wyoming vs. San José State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WYOTeam statsSJSU
- Q4 1:07WYOC.J. Johnson 53 Yd pass from Nick Smith (Cooper Rothe Kick)17–20
- Q4 2:09SJSUDeJon Packer 44 Yd Run (Bryce Crawford Kick)10–20
- Q3 10:24WYOCooper Rothe 28 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q2 0:47SJSUBryce Crawford 52 Yd Field Goal 7–13
- Q2 4:28WYONick Smith 1 Yd Run (Cooper Rothe Kick)7–10
- Q2 10:39SJSUBryce Crawford 44 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 7:45SJSUMontel Aaron 5 Yd Run (Bryce Crawford Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassNick Smith 17/37, 171 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushKellen Overstreet 17 CAR, 139 YDS
- RecC.J. Johnson 4 REC, 106 YDS, 1 TD
- PassMontel Aaron 15/29, 174 YDS, 1 INT
- RushDeJon Packer 8 CAR, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTre Hartley 7 REC, 109 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSJSU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 1:03SJSU +41%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wyom 48
- Q4 2:25SJSU +40%
DeJon Packer run for 6 yds to the Wyom 44
- Q4 1:07WYO +33%
Nick Smith pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 53 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)
- Q4 7:26SJSU +28%
Montel Aaron pass incomplete to Josh Oliver, broken up by Andrew Wingard
- Q4 5:58SJSU +26%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Josh Oliver for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 33
- Q4 4:25WYO +18%
Nick Smith pass complete to Austin Conway for 3 yds to the Wyom 23
FAQ
What was the final score of Wyoming vs. San José State?
Wyoming 17, San José State 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WYO, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WYO | SJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 357 | Total yards | 320 |
| 170 | Passing yards | 174 |
| 187 | Rushing yards | 146 |
| 17 | First downs | 14 |
| 5-20 | 3rd down | 2-15 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 18/38 | Comp/Att | 15/29 |
| 4.5 | Yards per pass | 6.0 |
| 4.3 | Yards per rush | 3.4 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 4-35 | Penalties | 5-55 |
| 31:32 | Possession | 28:28 |
Costliest call
Q2 15:00 SJSU punt on 4th & 1 at SJSU 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.43 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:07WYOC.J. Johnson 53 Yd pass from Nick Smith (Cooper Rothe Kick)17–20
- Q4 2:09SJSUDeJon Packer 44 Yd Run (Bryce Crawford Kick)10–20
- Q3 10:24WYOCooper Rothe 28 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q2 0:47SJSUBryce Crawford 52 Yd Field Goal 7–13
- Q2 4:28WYONick Smith 1 Yd Run (Cooper Rothe Kick)7–10
- Q2 10:39SJSUBryce Crawford 44 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 7:45SJSUMontel Aaron 5 Yd Run (Bryce Crawford Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SJSU Elo 775, WYO Elo 1509 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SJSU +27 (5% to win) — 8.5 points clear of WYO's market line of +18.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#57 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #11 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →Wyoming leads 8–7 · 40% have been one-possession games
| WYO | SJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -9.3 (#93) | CORE overall | -29.8 (#128) |
| -16 / -7 | offense / defense | -16 / +14 |
| 1.58 | points / drive | 0.86 |
| 1.41 | allowed / drive | 3.04 |
| 40% | three-and-outs | 36% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →