Southern Miss vs. UTSA: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USMTeam statsUTSA
- Q4 1:57UTSAJalen Rhodes 3 Yd Run (Victor Falcon Kick)32–55
- Q4 6:47USMChase Whitehead 33 Yd pass from Nick Mullens (Nick Mullens Pass to for Two-Point Conversion)32–48
- Q4 10:50UTSAVictor Falcon 26 Yd Field Goal 24–48
- Q3 6:23UTSAMatt Guidry 20 Yd Run (Victor Falcon Kick)24–45
- Q3 9:10USMParker Shaunfield 28 Yd Field Goal 24–38
- Q2 0:00UTSAVictor Falcon 45 Yd Field Goal 21–38
- Q2 3:24USMD.J. Thompson 35 Yd pass from Nick Mullens (Parker Shaunfield Kick)21–35
- Q2 7:26UTSAJalen Rhodes 80 Yd Run (Victor Falcon Kick)14–35
- Q2 11:33USMIto Smith 1 Yd Run (Parker Shaunfield Kick)14–28
- Q1 0:20UTSAJarveon Williams 6 Yd Run (Victor Falcon Kick)7–28
- Q1 3:08USMJay'Shawn Washington 17 Yd pass from Nick Mullens (Parker Shaunfield Kick)7–21
- Q1 7:15UTSAJalen Rhodes 4 Yd Run (Victor Falcon Kick)0–21
- Q1 11:45UTSAJarveon Williams 3 Yd Run (Victor Falcon Kick)0–14
- Q1 13:38UTSAKerry Thomas Jr. 71 Yd pass from Dalton Sturm (Victor Falcon Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UTSA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and USM did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.6 vs 3rd & 5.9
- PassNick Mullens 24/47, 370 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushIto Smith 20 CAR, 94 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAllenzae Staggers 6 REC, 92 YDS
- PassDalton Sturm 10/12, 193 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJalen Rhodes 14 CAR, 165 YDS, 3 TD
- RecJosh Stewart 2 REC, 85 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUTSA up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 7:26UTSA +22%
Jalen Rhodes run for 80 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)
- Q1 7:15UTSA +21%
Jalen Rhodes run for 4 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)
- Q1 0:20UTSA +19%
Jarveon Williams run for 6 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)
- Q1 11:45UTSA +19%
Jarveon Williams run for 3 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)
- Q2 11:33USM +15%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)
- Q1 13:38UTSA +15%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 71 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Southern Miss vs. UTSA?
Southern Miss 32, UTSA 55.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked USM, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| USM | UTSA | |
|---|---|---|
| 557 | Total yards | 532 |
| 378 | Passing yards | 193 |
| 179 | Rushing yards | 339 |
| 31 | First downs | 17 |
| 10-18 | 3rd down | 3-9 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 25/50 | Comp/Att | 10/12 |
| 7.6 | Yards per pass | 16.1 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | 9.7 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-57 | Penalties | 10-81 |
| 34:41 | Possession | 25:19 |
Costliest call
Q2 10:07 USM punt on 4th & 5 at UTSA 41. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.71 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:57UTSAJalen Rhodes 3 Yd Run (Victor Falcon Kick)32–55
- Q4 6:47USMChase Whitehead 33 Yd pass from Nick Mullens (Nick Mullens Pass to for Two-Point Conversion)32–48
- Q4 10:50UTSAVictor Falcon 26 Yd Field Goal 24–48
- Q3 6:23UTSAMatt Guidry 20 Yd Run (Victor Falcon Kick)24–45
- Q3 9:10USMParker Shaunfield 28 Yd Field Goal 24–38
- Q2 0:00UTSAVictor Falcon 45 Yd Field Goal 21–38
- Q2 3:24USMD.J. Thompson 35 Yd pass from Nick Mullens (Parker Shaunfield Kick)21–35
- Q2 7:26UTSAJalen Rhodes 80 Yd Run (Victor Falcon Kick)14–35
- Q2 11:33USMIto Smith 1 Yd Run (Parker Shaunfield Kick)14–28
- Q1 0:20UTSAJarveon Williams 6 Yd Run (Victor Falcon Kick)7–28
- Q1 3:08USMJay'Shawn Washington 17 Yd pass from Nick Mullens (Parker Shaunfield Kick)7–21
- Q1 7:15UTSAJalen Rhodes 4 Yd Run (Victor Falcon Kick)0–21
- Q1 11:45UTSAJarveon Williams 3 Yd Run (Victor Falcon Kick)0–14
- Q1 13:38UTSAKerry Thomas Jr. 71 Yd pass from Dalton Sturm (Victor Falcon Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UTSA Elo 1217, USM Elo 1609 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UTSA +13.3 (20% to win) — 2.7 points clear of UTSA's market line of +16. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#13 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #29 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds.
The 2016 upset archive →The series is level at 4–4 · UTSA has won 2 straight · 38% have been one-possession games
| USM | UTSA | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.1 (#65) | CORE overall | -2.9 (#77) |
| -1 / +0 | offense / defense | -4 / -1 |
| 2.33 | points / drive | 2.31 |
| 2.17 | allowed / drive | 2.27 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 34% |
| +4 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →