Utah vs. Oregon: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UTAHTeam statsORE
- Q4 3:58ORETaylor Alie 14 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)62–20
- Q4 10:00UTAHKendal Thompson 6 Yd Run (Andy Phillips Kick)62–13
- Q3 1:43UTAHBoobie Hobbs 69 Yd Punt Return (Andy Phillips Kick)55–13
- Q3 3:22UTAHCaleb Repp 16 Yd pass from Travis Wilson (Andy Phillips Kick)48–13
- Q3 12:13UTAHBritain Covey 25 Yd pass from Devontae Booker (Andy Phillips Kick)41–13
- Q3 13:21UTAHTravis Wilson 2 Yd Run (Andy Phillips Kick)34–13
- Q2 1:00UTAHCaleb Repp 9 Yd pass from Travis Wilson (Andy Phillips Kick)27–13
- Q2 4:08OREBralon Addison 6 Yd pass from Jeff Lockie (Aidan Schneider Kick)20–13
- Q2 6:15UTAHKenneth Scott 7 Yd pass from Travis Wilson (Andy Phillips Kick)20–6
- Q2 11:00UTAHBritain Covey 26 Yd pass from Travis Wilson (Andy Phillips Kick)13–6
- Q1 1:00ORERoyce Freeman 13 Yd pass from Vernon Adams Jr. (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)6–6
- Q1 1:46UTAHAndy Phillips 44 Yd Field Goal 6–0
- Q1 5:11UTAHAndy Phillips 28 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassTravis Wilson 18/30, 227 YDS, 4 TD
- RushTravis Wilson 6 CAR, 100 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKenneth Scott 6 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJeff Lockie 10/20, 139 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushRoyce Freeman 14 CAR, 77 YDS
- RecRoyce Freeman 2 REC, 46 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUTAH up 42 entering the 4th quarter. Across 170 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 6:15UTAH +28%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Kenneth Scott for 7 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK)
- Q2 1:00UTAH +24%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Caleb Repp for 9 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK)
- Q2 4:08ORE +22%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Bralon Addison for 6 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)
- Q2 11:00UTAH +20%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Britain Covey for 26 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK)
- Q3 13:21UTAH +16%
Travis Wilson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK)
- Q1 1:00ORE +16%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Royce Freeman for 13 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
FAQ
What was the final score of Utah vs. Oregon?
Utah 62, Oregon 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ORE, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UTAH | ORE | |
|---|---|---|
| 530 | Total yards | 400 |
| 257 | Passing yards | 178 |
| 273 | Rushing yards | 222 |
| 24 | First downs | 20 |
| 6-13 | 3rd down | 4-14 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 20/32 | Comp/Att | 14/30 |
| 8.0 | Yards per pass | 5.9 |
| 6.5 | Yards per rush | 5.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 6-54 | Penalties | 10-90 |
| 36:40 | Possession | 23:20 |
Costliest call
Q4 10:47 UTAH punt on 4th & 1 at ORE 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.60 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:58ORETaylor Alie 14 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)62–20
- Q4 10:00UTAHKendal Thompson 6 Yd Run (Andy Phillips Kick)62–13
- Q3 1:43UTAHBoobie Hobbs 69 Yd Punt Return (Andy Phillips Kick)55–13
- Q3 3:22UTAHCaleb Repp 16 Yd pass from Travis Wilson (Andy Phillips Kick)48–13
- Q3 12:13UTAHBritain Covey 25 Yd pass from Devontae Booker (Andy Phillips Kick)41–13
- Q3 13:21UTAHTravis Wilson 2 Yd Run (Andy Phillips Kick)34–13
- Q2 1:00UTAHCaleb Repp 9 Yd pass from Travis Wilson (Andy Phillips Kick)27–13
- Q2 4:08OREBralon Addison 6 Yd pass from Jeff Lockie (Aidan Schneider Kick)20–13
- Q2 6:15UTAHKenneth Scott 7 Yd pass from Travis Wilson (Andy Phillips Kick)20–6
- Q2 11:00UTAHBritain Covey 26 Yd pass from Travis Wilson (Andy Phillips Kick)13–6
- Q1 1:00ORERoyce Freeman 13 Yd pass from Vernon Adams Jr. (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)6–6
- Q1 1:46UTAHAndy Phillips 44 Yd Field Goal 6–0
- Q1 5:11UTAHAndy Phillips 28 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ORE Elo 1934, UTAH Elo 1640 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ORE -14.2 (83% to win) — 2.7 points clear of ORE's market line of -11.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#1 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #16 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds · #50 of 58 in 2015 by biggest poll gap.
The 2015 upset archive →Oregon leads 25–12 · Oregon has won 2 straight · 49% have been one-possession games
| UTAH | ORE | |
|---|---|---|
| +8.0 (#43) | CORE overall | +14.2 (#23) |
| -2 / -10 | offense / defense | +16 / +2 |
| 2.18 | points / drive | 2.92 |
| 1.50 | allowed / drive | 2.48 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| -4 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →