Pittsburgh vs. Duke: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
PITTTeam statsDUKE
- Q4 11:25PITTQadree Ollison 1 Yd Run (Chris Blewitt Kick)31–13
- Q3 0:24DUKERoss Martin 51 Yd Field Goal 24–13
- Q3 3:34PITTDontez Ford 5 Yd pass from Nathan Peterman (Chris Blewitt Kick)24–10
- Q3 9:37PITTJ.P. Holtz 3 Yd pass from Nathan Peterman (Chris Blewitt Kick)17–10
- Q2 0:43PITTChris Blewitt 51 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 3:52DUKERoss Martin 27 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 2:28DUKEParker Boehme 1 Yd Run (Ross Martin Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:02PITTZach Challingsworth 13 Yd pass from Nathan Peterman (Chris Blewitt Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassNathan Peterman 13/23, 180 YDS, 3 TD
- RushQadree Ollison 26 CAR, 111 YDS, 1 TD
- RecZach Challingsworth 3 REC, 57 YDS, 1 TD
- PassParker Boehme 23/42, 248 YDS, 1 INT
- RushParker Boehme 11 CAR, 80 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAnthony Nash 5 REC, 101 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsPITT up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 9:37PITT +33%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to J.P. Holtz for 3 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)
- Q3 3:34PITT +28%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Dontez Ford for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)
- Q1 6:02PITT +20%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Zach Challingsworth for 13 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)
- Q1 2:28DUKE +18%
Parker Boehme run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)
- Q2 0:43PITT +10%
Chris Blewitt 51 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 3:52DUKE +9%
Ross Martin 27 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Pittsburgh vs. Duke?
Pittsburgh 31, Duke 13.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked DUKE, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| PITT | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 448 | Total yards | 361 |
| 180 | Passing yards | 248 |
| 268 | Rushing yards | 113 |
| 26 | First downs | 18 |
| 8-15 | 3rd down | 8-15 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 13/23 | Comp/Att | 23/43 |
| 7.8 | Yards per pass | 5.8 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | 5.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 5-40 | Penalties | 4-38 |
| 39:45 | Possession | 20:15 |
Costliest call
Q1 15:00 DUKE punt on 4th & 6 at PITT 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.39 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 11:25PITTQadree Ollison 1 Yd Run (Chris Blewitt Kick)31–13
- Q3 0:24DUKERoss Martin 51 Yd Field Goal 24–13
- Q3 3:34PITTDontez Ford 5 Yd pass from Nathan Peterman (Chris Blewitt Kick)24–10
- Q3 9:37PITTJ.P. Holtz 3 Yd pass from Nathan Peterman (Chris Blewitt Kick)17–10
- Q2 0:43PITTChris Blewitt 51 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 3:52DUKERoss Martin 27 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 2:28DUKEParker Boehme 1 Yd Run (Ross Martin Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:02PITTZach Challingsworth 13 Yd pass from Nathan Peterman (Chris Blewitt Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (DUKE Elo 1602, PITT Elo 1554 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects DUKE -4.3 (63% to win) — 4.3 points clear of DUKE's market line of PK. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#45 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #77 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds.
The 2015 upset archive →Pittsburgh leads 17–10 · 44% have been one-possession games
| PITT | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.3 (#53) | CORE overall | -5.9 (#87) |
| +4 / -1 | offense / defense | -5 / +1 |
| 2.30 | points / drive | 2.09 |
| 2.21 | allowed / drive | 1.98 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| -3 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →