Georgia Tech vs. Duke: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GTTeam statsDUKE
- Q4 1:49DUKEShaquille Powell 30 Yd Run (Thomas Sirk Pass to Max McCaffrey for Two-Point Conversion)20–34
- Q4 8:02GTJustin Thomas 12 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)20–26
- Q3 6:54DUKEDeVon Edwards 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Ross Martin Kick)13–26
- Q3 7:07GTHarrison Butker 48 Yd Field Goal 13–19
- Q2 0:30GTRicky Jeune 10 Yd pass from Justin Thomas (Harrison Butker Kick)10–19
- Q1 0:00DUKEShaquille Powell 1 Yd Run 3–19
- Q1 2:20DUKET.J. Rahming 11 Yd pass from Thomas Sirk (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)3–13
- Q1 6:14DUKEShaquille Powell 4 Yd Run (Ross Martin Kick)3–7
- Q1 10:49GTHarrison Butker 52 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- GT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and DUKE did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.6 vs 3rd & 4.3
- PassJustin Thomas 6/21, 143 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushPatrick Skov 19 CAR, 75 YDS
- RecRicky Jeune 4 REC, 91 YDS, 1 TD
- PassThomas Sirk 17/25, 114 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushShaquille Powell 14 CAR, 88 YDS, 3 TD
- RecMax McCaffrey 4 REC, 48 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsDUKE up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 6:54DUKE +24%
DeVon Edwards 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Ross Martin Kick)
- Q4 8:02GT +22%
Justin Thomas 12 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)
- Q2 0:30GT +19%
Ricky Jeune 10 Yd pass from Justin Thomas (Harrison Butker Kick)
- Q1 6:14DUKE +18%
Shaquille Powell 4 Yd Run (Ross Martin Kick)
- Q1 0:00DUKE +18%
Shaquille Powell 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
- Q1 2:20DUKE +17%
T.J. Rahming 11 Yd pass from Thomas Sirk (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia Tech vs. Duke?
Georgia Tech 20, Duke 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked GT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| GT | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 316 | Total yards | 279 |
| 143 | Passing yards | 114 |
| 173 | Rushing yards | 165 |
| 16 | First downs | 11 |
| 5-19 | 3rd down | 6-16 |
| 1-5 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 6/22 | Comp/Att | 17/25 |
| 6.5 | Yards per pass | 4.6 |
| 2.9 | Yards per rush | 4.6 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 1-5 | Penalties | 4-35 |
| 35:35 | Possession | 24:25 |
Costliest call
Q2 10:03 DUKE punt on 4th & 1 at DUKE 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.18 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:49DUKEShaquille Powell 30 Yd Run (Thomas Sirk Pass to Max McCaffrey for Two-Point Conversion)20–34
- Q4 8:02GTJustin Thomas 12 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)20–26
- Q3 6:54DUKEDeVon Edwards 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Ross Martin Kick)13–26
- Q3 7:07GTHarrison Butker 48 Yd Field Goal 13–19
- Q2 0:30GTRicky Jeune 10 Yd pass from Justin Thomas (Harrison Butker Kick)10–19
- Q1 0:00DUKEShaquille Powell 1 Yd Run 3–19
- Q1 2:20DUKET.J. Rahming 11 Yd pass from Thomas Sirk (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)3–13
- Q1 6:14DUKEShaquille Powell 4 Yd Run (Ross Martin Kick)3–7
- Q1 10:49GTHarrison Butker 52 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (DUKE Elo 1597, GT Elo 1852 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects DUKE +7.8 (31% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#37 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #39 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds · #29 of 58 in 2015 by biggest poll gap.
The 2015 upset archive →Georgia Tech leads 56–35–1 · Georgia Tech has won 5 straight · 33% have been one-possession games
| GT | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| +4.3 (#55) | CORE overall | -5.9 (#87) |
| +2 / -2 | offense / defense | -5 / +1 |
| 2.08 | points / drive | 2.09 |
| 2.39 | allowed / drive | 1.98 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| -25 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →