Georgia State vs. Georgia Southern: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GASTTeam statsGASO
- Q4 8:31GASTKyler Neal 28 Yd Run (Wil Lutz Kick)34–7
- Q4 14:14GASTKyler Neal 1 Yd Run (Wil Lutz Kick)27–7
- Q3 5:10GASTKeith Rucker 4 Yd pass from Nick Arbuckle (Wil Lutz Kick)20–7
- Q3 9:57GASTRobert Davis 18 Yd pass from Nick Arbuckle (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)13–7
- Q2 10:32GASOLA Ramsby 1 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)7–7
- Q2 14:07GASTPenny Hart 63 Yd pass from Nick Arbuckle (Wil Lutz Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassNick Arbuckle 20/32, 346 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushGlenn Smith 13 CAR, 83 YDS
- RecPenny Hart 7 REC, 129 YDS, 1 TD
- PassKevin Ellison 4/13, 53 YDS, 2 INT
- RushMatt Breida 8 CAR, 45 YDS
- RecBJ Johnson III 4 REC, 57 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsGAST up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 5:10GAST +30%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 4 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)
- Q3 9:57GAST +28%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 18 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
- Q4 14:14GAST +16%
Kyler Neal run for 1 yd for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)
- Q2 14:07GAST +16%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Penny Hart for 63 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)
- Q2 10:32GASO +14%
LA Ramsby run for 1 yd for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)
- Q3 7:26GAST +10%
Glenn Smith run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 18
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia State vs. Georgia Southern?
Georgia State 34, Georgia Southern 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked GASO, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| GAST | GASO | |
|---|---|---|
| 489 | Total yards | 203 |
| 346 | Passing yards | 68 |
| 143 | Rushing yards | 135 |
| 23 | First downs | 14 |
| 8-14 | 3rd down | 4-14 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 20/32 | Comp/Att | 6/19 |
| 10.8 | Yards per pass | 3.6 |
| 3.9 | Yards per rush | 3.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 8-103 | Penalties | 6-38 |
| 31:49 | Possession | 28:11 |
Costliest call
Q1 3:49 GASO punt on 4th & 4 at GASO 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.20 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:31GASTKyler Neal 28 Yd Run (Wil Lutz Kick)34–7
- Q4 14:14GASTKyler Neal 1 Yd Run (Wil Lutz Kick)27–7
- Q3 5:10GASTKeith Rucker 4 Yd pass from Nick Arbuckle (Wil Lutz Kick)20–7
- Q3 9:57GASTRobert Davis 18 Yd pass from Nick Arbuckle (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)13–7
- Q2 10:32GASOLA Ramsby 1 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)7–7
- Q2 14:07GASTPenny Hart 63 Yd pass from Nick Arbuckle (Wil Lutz Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (GASO Elo 1655, GAST Elo 1233 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects GASO -19.3 (89% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#2 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #3 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds.
The 2015 upset archive →The series is level at 6–6 · Georgia Southern has won 3 straight · 42% have been one-possession games
| GAST | GASO | |
|---|---|---|
| -7.4 (#88) | CORE overall | +7.3 (#45) |
| -6 / +1 | offense / defense | +6 / -1 |
| 1.85 | points / drive | 3.04 |
| 1.91 | allowed / drive | 1.91 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +10 | pass over expected | -30 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →