Miami vs. Virginia: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MIATeam statsUVA
- Q4 1:24MIAHugo Delapenha 13 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)13–30
- Q4 8:30UVAKhalek Shepherd 4 Yd Run (Ian Frye Kick)7–30
- Q4 11:35UVAIan Frye 22 Yd Field Goal 7–23
- Q3 1:37UVADarius Jennings 1 Yd Run (Ian Frye Kick)7–20
- Q2 0:00UVAIan Frye 17 Yd Field Goal 7–13
- Q2 3:21UVACanaan Severin 23 Yd pass from Greyson Lambert (Ian Frye Kick)7–10
- Q2 11:16UVAIan Frye 20 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 3:03MIAPhillip Dorsett 47 Yd pass from Brad Kaaya (Michael Badgley Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MIA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UVA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.1 vs 3rd & 4.1
- MIA lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 37% success rate
- PassBrad Kaaya 20/33, 263 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushDuke Johnson 15 CAR, 88 YDS
- RecClive Walford 7 REC, 105 YDS
- PassGreyson Lambert 17/25, 146 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushKhalek Shepherd 22 CAR, 95 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCanaan Severin 4 REC, 55 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUVA up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 1:37UVA +29%
Darius Jennings run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)
- Q2 3:21UVA +21%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Canaan Severin for 23 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)
- Q1 3:03MIA +14%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Phillip Dorsett for 47 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)
- Q3 5:26UVA +13%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 2 yds to the MiaFl 4
- Q2 0:00UVA +11%
Ian Frye 17 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 12:37UVA +8%
Greyson Lambert pass intercepted Jamal Carter return for no gain to the MiaFl 29 MIAMI FL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jamal Carter) to the MiaFl 13
FAQ
What was the final score of Miami vs. Virginia?
Miami 13, Virginia 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MIA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MIA | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| 327 | Total yards | 341 |
| 263 | Passing yards | 146 |
| 64 | Rushing yards | 195 |
| 15 | First downs | 18 |
| 5-12 | 3rd down | 7-17 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 20/33 | Comp/Att | 17/25 |
| 8.0 | Yards per pass | 5.8 |
| 2.8 | Yards per rush | 4.5 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 9-59 | Penalties | 3-30 |
| 24:04 | Possession | 35:56 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:00 UVA field goal on 4th & 1 at MIA 1. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 2.14 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:24MIAHugo Delapenha 13 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)13–30
- Q4 8:30UVAKhalek Shepherd 4 Yd Run (Ian Frye Kick)7–30
- Q4 11:35UVAIan Frye 22 Yd Field Goal 7–23
- Q3 1:37UVADarius Jennings 1 Yd Run (Ian Frye Kick)7–20
- Q2 0:00UVAIan Frye 17 Yd Field Goal 7–13
- Q2 3:21UVACanaan Severin 23 Yd pass from Greyson Lambert (Ian Frye Kick)7–10
- Q2 11:16UVAIan Frye 20 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 3:03MIAPhillip Dorsett 47 Yd pass from Brad Kaaya (Michael Badgley Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UVA Elo 1419, MIA Elo 1753 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UVA +11 (24% to win) — 6.0 points clear of MIA's market line of +5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#55 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #63 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →Miami leads 13–8 · Miami has won 2 straight · 57% have been one-possession games
| MIA | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.53 | points / drive | 1.48 |
| 1.93 | allowed / drive | 1.62 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 31% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →