#15Brad Kaaya

QB·Miami·2016 2015 20148.6 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Brad Kaaya is a 3-year Dual-Threat QB for Miami. Brad's 2016 season ranks in the 43th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 451 plays — a developing rate for the QB. Production has trended downward season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Brad Kaaya's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

Recruiting Profile· Class of 2014

★★★★★

4-Star · High major target

Stars: ★★★★★
247 composite: 0.9375
National rank: #142
High school: Chaminade
Hometown: West Hills, CA

Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.

2016 Production

Passing

261/421 Comp/Att3532 Pass yards27 Pass TD7 INT62.0% Comp %

Rushing

-136 Rush yards1 Rush TD37 Carries-3.7 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs QB peers

Efficiency43
Volume100
Dual-Threat65
Consistency80
Clutch88

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)43th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency80th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:↓ Declining

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Production has slipped season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.84 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Georgia Tech (SP+ 8).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsFlorida A&M	W70-3	—	12/18	135	4	0	82.1	-8	0	0.59
2	vsFlorida Atlantic	W38-10	-14.1	17/31	191	0	2	18.3	3	0	0.13
3	@App State	W45-10	9.2	21/27	368	3	1	95.6	-8	0	0.59
5	@Georgia Tech	W35-21	7.8	13/19	241	1	0	86.8	—	—	0.84
6	vsFlorida State	L19-20	24.0	19/32	214	2	1	48.7	-14	0	0.24
7	vsNorth Carolina	L13-20	15.9	16/31	224	0	0	25.1	-17	0	0.06
8	@Virginia Tech	L16-37	15.2	23/38	323	2	1	43.2	-55	0	0.18
9	@Notre Dame	L27-30	15.7	26/42	288	1	1	53.6	-35	0	0.28
10	vsPittsburgh	W51-28	13.1	32/47	356	4	0	84.7	17	1	0.49
11	@Virginia	W34-14	-3.8	14/29	228	2	1	36.9	-4	0	0.07
12	@NC State	W27-13	9.4	22/38	286	0	0	51.5	-14	0	0.26
13	vsDuke	W40-21	-2.8	22/35	396	4	0	91.3	2	0	0.71
1	vsWest Virginia	W31-14	11.3	24/34	282	4	0	80.5	-3	0	0.39

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

51.8%

Passing plays

98.9%

Rushing plays

3.4%

Standard downs

46.0%

Passing downs

63.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.24
Passing downs: 0.48
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.34 / 0.23

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 — 2016 · 38 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2014	Miami	9.0	0.540	—	212.2
2015	Miami	7.1	0.480	-0.06	187.2
2016	Miami	8.6	0.500	+0.02	223.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.