#15Brad Kaaya

QB·Miami·2016 2015 20149.0 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Brad Kaaya is a 3-year Clutch Passer for Miami. Brad's 2014 season ranks in the 70th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 389 plays — a average rate for the QB. Production has trended downward season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Brad Kaaya's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

Recruiting Profile· Class of 2014

★★★★★

4-Star · High major target

Stars: ★★★★★
247 composite: 0.9375
National rank: #142
High school: Chaminade
Hometown: West Hills, CA

Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.

2014 Production

Passing

221/378 Comp/Att3198 Pass yards26 Pass TD12 INT58.5% Comp %

Rushing

-131 Rush yards1 Rush TD27 Carries-4.9 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs QB peers

Efficiency70
Volume100
Dual-Threat0
Consistency71
Clutch89

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)70th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency71th %ile · average

Career trajectory:↓ Declining

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Production has slipped season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 1.02 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Arkansas State (SP+ -0).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Louisville	L13-31	17.0	17/29	174	1	2	14.8	-16	0	0.01
2	vsFlorida A&M	W41-7	—	12/22	177	2	2	58.7	-1	0	0.14
3	vsArkansas State	W41-20	-0.3	16/24	342	4	1	90.7	-18	0	1.02
4	@Nebraska	L31-41	13.1	28/42	359	3	2	64.6	-25	0	0.32
5	vsDuke	W22-10	7.0	20/34	223	2	0	56.6	0	0	0.13
6	@Georgia Tech	L17-28	11.2	16/25	245	1	2	36.8	-9	0	0.15
7	vsCincinnati	W55-34	6.9	17/24	286	3	0	82.5	-13	1	0.56
9	@Virginia Tech	W30-6	7.8	7/16	92	1	0	35.0	0	0	0.02
10	vsNorth Carolina	W47-20	0.0	11/17	189	3	0	79.3	-15	0	0.88
12	vsFlorida State	L26-30	28.5	16/34	316	2	1	70.1	5	0	0.17
13	@Virginia	L13-30	4.0	20/33	263	1	1	47.2	-33	0	0.16
14	vsPittsburgh	L23-35	14.1	22/45	296	2	0	68.1	1	0	0.39
1	vsSouth Carolina	L21-24	17.4	19/33	236	1	1	35.3	-7	0	0.15

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

47.6%

Passing plays

96.5%

Rushing plays

3.0%

Standard downs

42.4%

Passing downs

59.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.22
Passing downs: 0.47
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.35 / -0.62

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 — 2016 · 38 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2014	Miami	9.0	0.540	—	212.2
2015	Miami	7.1	0.480	-0.06	187.2
2016	Miami	8.6	0.500	+0.02	223.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.