#15Brad Kaaya

QB·Miami·2016 2015 20147.1 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Brad Kaaya is a 3-year Clutch Passer for Miami. Brad's 2015 season ranks in the 40th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 393 plays — a developing rate for the QB. Production has trended downward season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Brad Kaaya's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

Recruiting Profile· Class of 2014

★★★★★

4-Star · High major target

Stars: ★★★★★
247 composite: 0.9375
National rank: #142
High school: Chaminade
Hometown: West Hills, CA

Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.

2015 Production

Passing

239/390 Comp/Att3242 Pass yards16 Pass TD5 INT61.3% Comp %

Rushing

-119 Rush yards2 Rush TD30 Carries-4.0 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs QB peers

Efficiency40
Volume100
Dual-Threat38
Consistency73
Clutch60

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)40th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency73th %ile · average

Career trajectory:↓ Declining

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Production has slipped season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Peak game: 0.82 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs Georgia Tech (SP+ 9).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsBethune-Cookman	W45-0	—	16/27	173	2	0	68.5	-5	0	0.34
2	@Florida Atlantic	W44-20	-9.8	21/32	287	1	0	74.3	-6	0	0.43
3	vsNebraska	W36-33	11.1	25/42	379	2	1	71.1	-9	0	0.28
5	@Cincinnati	L23-34	5.3	24/39	255	0	0	58.3	-1	0	0.08
6	@Florida State	L24-29	23.2	29/49	405	3	0	66.5	-16	0	0.44
7	vsVirginia Tech	W30-20	11.4	19/30	296	2	0	82.1	-9	0	0.61
8	vsClemson	L0-58	24.0	6/10	51	0	1	20.8	-11	0	-0.38
10	vsVirginia	W27-21	1.4	20/26	286	2	1	59.1	-3	0	0.74
11	@North Carolina	L21-59	20.0	24/43	326	1	1	16.9	-22	1	0.26
12	vsGeorgia Tech	W38-21	9.0	16/25	300	1	0	89.4	—	—	0.82
13	@Pittsburgh	W29-24	11.1	21/35	261	1	0	84.2	-4	1	0.45
1	vsWashington State	L14-20	4.2	18/32	223	1	1	34.9	-33	0	0.07

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

50.5%

Passing plays

92.4%

Rushing plays

4.3%

Standard downs

44.9%

Passing downs

62.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.32
Passing downs: 0.42
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.37 / 0.09

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 — 2016 · 38 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2014	Miami	9.0	0.540	—	212.2
2015	Miami	7.1	0.480	-0.06	187.2
2016	Miami	8.6	0.500	+0.02	223.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.