Wyoming vs. Texas State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WYOTeam statsTXST
- Q4 0:03TXSTTEXAS STATE Extra point GOOD.21–42
- Q4 0:03TXSTTEXAS STATE rush for a touchdown.21–41
- Q4 11:12WYOWYOMING Extra point GOOD.21–35
- Q4 11:12WYOWYOMING pass complete for a touchdown.20–35
- Q4 13:11TXSTTEXAS STATE Extra point GOOD.14–35
- Q4 13:11TXSTTEXAS STATE rush for a touchdown.14–34
- Q3 4:40TXSTTEXAS STATE Extra point GOOD.14–28
- Q3 4:40TXSTTEXAS STATE rush for a touchdown.14–27
- Q3 9:14TXSTTEXAS STATE Extra point GOOD.14–21
- Q3 9:14TXSTTEXAS STATE rush for a touchdown.14–20
- Q2 0:29TXSTTEXAS STATE Extra point GOOD.14–14
- Q2 0:29TXSTTEXAS STATE pass complete for a touchdown.14–13
- Q2 3:47WYOWYOMING Extra point GOOD.14–7
- Q2 3:47WYOWYOMING rush for a touchdown.14–7
- Q2 13:15WYOWYOMING Extra point GOOD.7–7
- Q2 13:15WYOWYOMING rush for a touchdown.6–7
- Q1 9:36TXSTTEXAS STATE Extra point GOOD.0–7
- Q1 9:36TXSTTEXAS STATE rush for a touchdown.0–7
How the model called it
- PassBrett Smith 25/48, 292 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushBrandon Miller 14 CAR, 72 YDS, 2 TD
- RecRobert Herron 7 REC, 94 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTyler Jones 14/18, 196 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushRobert Lowe 30 CAR, 138 YDS, 3 TD
- RecBradley Miller 1 REC, 49 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTXST up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 9:14TXST +24%
Robert Lowe rush up the middle for 5 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 4:25WYO +21%
Brett Smith pass complete to Robert Herron for 41 yards to the TexSt 5, tackled by Craig Mager for a 1ST down
- Q3 4:40TXST +19%
Chris Nutall rush over right tackle for 22 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 0:29TXST +18%
Tyler Jones deep out pass complete to Ben Ijah for 26 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 4:40TXST +9%
Duke DeLancellotti deep out pass incomplete to Robert Lowe, broken up by Tim Hayes
- Q3 8:13TXST +7%
Tyler Jones screen pass complete to Isaiah Battle for 5 yards to the TexSt 25, tackled by Darrenn White
FAQ
What was the final score of Wyoming vs. Texas State?
Wyoming 21, Texas State 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WYO, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WYO | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 356 | Total yards | 452 |
| 292 | Passing yards | 196 |
| 64 | Rushing yards | 256 |
| 19 | First downs | 19 |
| 5-16 | 3rd down | 4-14 |
| 0-3 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 25/48 | Comp/Att | 14/19 |
| 6.1 | Yards per pass | 10.3 |
| 2.2 | Yards per rush | 5.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-22 | Penalties | 9-59 |
| 22:00 | Possession | 37:42 |
Costliest call
Q2 6:34 TXST punt on 4th & 1 at TXST 10. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.11 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:03TXSTTEXAS STATE Extra point GOOD.21–42
- Q4 0:03TXSTTEXAS STATE rush for a touchdown.21–41
- Q4 11:12WYOWYOMING Extra point GOOD.21–35
- Q4 11:12WYOWYOMING pass complete for a touchdown.20–35
- Q4 13:11TXSTTEXAS STATE Extra point GOOD.14–35
- Q4 13:11TXSTTEXAS STATE rush for a touchdown.14–34
- Q3 4:40TXSTTEXAS STATE Extra point GOOD.14–28
- Q3 4:40TXSTTEXAS STATE rush for a touchdown.14–27
- Q3 9:14TXSTTEXAS STATE Extra point GOOD.14–21
- Q3 9:14TXSTTEXAS STATE rush for a touchdown.14–20
- Q2 0:29TXSTTEXAS STATE Extra point GOOD.14–14
- Q2 0:29TXSTTEXAS STATE pass complete for a touchdown.14–13
- Q2 3:47WYOWYOMING Extra point GOOD.14–7
- Q2 3:47WYOWYOMING rush for a touchdown.14–7
- Q2 13:15WYOWYOMING Extra point GOOD.7–7
- Q2 13:15WYOWYOMING rush for a touchdown.6–7
- Q1 9:36TXSTTEXAS STATE Extra point GOOD.0–7
- Q1 9:36TXSTTEXAS STATE rush for a touchdown.0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TXST Elo 1325, WYO Elo 1512 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TXST +5.1 (38% to win) — 5.4 points clear of TXST's market line of +10.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2013
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#16 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #34 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.
The 2013 upset archive →Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →