Missouri vs. Georgia: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MIZTeam statsUGA
- Q4 2:18MIZMISSOURI Extra point GOOD.41–26
- Q4 2:18MIZMISSOURI rush for a touchdown.40–26
- Q4 9:22MIZMISSOURI pass complete for a touchdown.34–26
- Q4 12:15UGAGEORGIA pass complete for a touchdown.28–26
- Q3 3:23UGAGEORGIA Extra point GOOD.28–20
- Q3 3:23UGAGEORGIA pass complete for a touchdown.28–19
- Q3 13:09UGAGEORGIA 28 yard field goal GOOD.28–13
- Q2 5:46MIZMISSOURI Extra point GOOD.28–10
- Q2 5:56MIZMISSOURI Extra point GOOD.21–10
- Q2 5:56MIZMISSOURI rush for a touchdown.20–10
- Q2 9:54UGAGEORGIA 29 yard field goal GOOD.14–10
- Q2 12:33MIZMISSOURI Extra point GOOD.14–7
- Q2 12:33MIZMISSOURI pass complete for a touchdown.13–7
- Q1 1:00MIZMISSOURI Extra point GOOD.7–7
- Q1 1:00MIZMISSOURI rush for a touchdown.6–7
- Q1 3:44UGAGEORGIA Extra point GOOD.0–7
- Q1 3:44UGAGEORGIA pass complete for a touchdown.0–6
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MIZ played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UGA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.9 vs 3rd & 5.4
- MIZ lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassJames Franklin 18/27, 170 YDS, 1 TD
- RushMarcus Murphy 5 CAR, 57 YDS, 1 TD
- RecL'Damian Washington 7 REC, 115 YDS, 2 TD
- PassAaron Murray 25/45, 290 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushJ.J. Green 12 CAR, 87 YDS
- RecRantavious Wooten 4 REC, 83 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMIZ up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,592 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 9:22MIZ +28%
Bud Sasser pass complete to L'Damian Washington for 40 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 12:15UGA +27%
Aaron Murray pass complete to Chris Conley for 10 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 5:56MIZ +20%
Marcus Murphy rush for 36 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 2:45MIZ +20%
Brendan Douglas rush for 5 yards to the Misso 30
- Q2 12:33MIZ +18%
James Franklin pass complete to L'Damian Washington for 16 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 11:30MIZ +16%
James Franklin pass complete to Henry Josey for no gain to the Misso 26
FAQ
What was the final score of Missouri vs. Georgia?
Missouri 41, Georgia 26.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UGA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MIZ | UGA | |
|---|---|---|
| 375 | Total yards | 454 |
| 233 | Passing yards | 290 |
| 142 | Rushing yards | 164 |
| 23 | First downs | 26 |
| 5-12 | 3rd down | 4-11 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 22/31 | Comp/Att | 25/45 |
| 7.5 | Yards per pass | 6.4 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 5.3 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 10-57 | Penalties | 5-40 |
| 30:37 | Possession | 29:23 |
Costliest call
Q3 8:06 MIZ punt on 4th & 4 at UGA 37. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.12 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:18MIZMISSOURI Extra point GOOD.41–26
- Q4 2:18MIZMISSOURI rush for a touchdown.40–26
- Q4 9:22MIZMISSOURI pass complete for a touchdown.34–26
- Q4 12:15UGAGEORGIA pass complete for a touchdown.28–26
- Q3 3:23UGAGEORGIA Extra point GOOD.28–20
- Q3 3:23UGAGEORGIA pass complete for a touchdown.28–19
- Q3 13:09UGAGEORGIA 28 yard field goal GOOD.28–13
- Q2 5:46MIZMISSOURI Extra point GOOD.28–10
- Q2 5:56MIZMISSOURI Extra point GOOD.21–10
- Q2 5:56MIZMISSOURI rush for a touchdown.20–10
- Q2 9:54UGAGEORGIA 29 yard field goal GOOD.14–10
- Q2 12:33MIZMISSOURI Extra point GOOD.14–7
- Q2 12:33MIZMISSOURI pass complete for a touchdown.13–7
- Q1 1:00MIZMISSOURI Extra point GOOD.7–7
- Q1 1:00MIZMISSOURI rush for a touchdown.6–7
- Q1 3:44UGAGEORGIA Extra point GOOD.0–7
- Q1 3:44UGAGEORGIA pass complete for a touchdown.0–6
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UGA Elo 1851, MIZ Elo 1691 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UGA -8.8 (73% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2013
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#45 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #40 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.
The 2013 upset archive →Georgia leads 12–1 · Georgia has won 10 straight · 23% have been one-possession games
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →