Iowa State vs. Tulsa: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ISUTeam statsTLSA
- Q4 1:48ISUIOWA ST Extra point GOOD.38–21
- Q4 1:48ISUIOWA ST rush for a touchdown.37–21
- Q4 8:16TLSATULSA Extra point GOOD.31–21
- Q4 8:16TLSATULSA pass complete for a touchdown.31–20
- Q4 10:53ISUIOWA ST 40 yard field goal GOOD.31–14
- Q3 3:16ISUIOWA ST Extra point GOOD.28–14
- Q3 3:16ISUIOWA ST rush for a touchdown.27–14
- Q3 12:36ISUIOWA ST Extra point GOOD.21–14
- Q3 12:36ISUIOWA ST pass complete for a touchdown.20–14
- Q2 0:15ISUIOWA ST Extra point GOOD.14–14
- Q2 0:15ISUIOWA ST pass complete for a touchdown.13–14
- Q2 1:33TLSATULSA Extra point GOOD.7–14
- Q2 1:33TLSATULSA pass complete for a touchdown.7–13
- Q2 4:58TLSATULSA Extra point GOOD.7–7
- Q2 4:58TLSATULSA rush for a touchdown.7–6
- Q1 6:31ISUIOWA ST Extra point GOOD.7–0
- Q1 6:31ISUIOWA ST rush for a touchdown.6–0
How the model called it
- PassSam B. Richardson 26/41, 255 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushAaron Wimberly 19 CAR, 137 YDS
- RecTad Ecby 6 REC, 59 YDS
- PassCody Green 18/31, 237 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushTrey Watts 14 CAR, 38 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJordan James 8 REC, 86 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsISU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 12:36ISU +21%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to E.J. Bibbs for 16 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 0:15ISU +19%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Jarvis West for 10 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 1:33TLSA +19%
Cody Green pass complete to Thomas Roberson for 9 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 4:58TLSA +18%
Trey Watts rush for 1 yard for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 3:16ISU +17%
Jeff Woody rush for 1 yard for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 6:31ISU +16%
Jeff Woody rush for 1 yard for a TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Iowa State vs. Tulsa?
Iowa State 38, Tulsa 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TLSA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ISU | TLSA | |
|---|---|---|
| 434 | Total yards | 374 |
| 255 | Passing yards | 288 |
| 179 | Rushing yards | 86 |
| 25 | First downs | 22 |
| 8-18 | 3rd down | 3-12 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 3-4 |
| 26/42 | Comp/Att | 26/49 |
| 6.1 | Yards per pass | 5.9 |
| 4.1 | Yards per rush | 3.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 3-25 | Penalties | 1-10 |
| 35:37 | Possession | 24:15 |
Costliest call
Q4 8:16 TLSA go for it on 4th & 5 at ISU 21. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.39 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:48ISUIOWA ST Extra point GOOD.38–21
- Q4 1:48ISUIOWA ST rush for a touchdown.37–21
- Q4 8:16TLSATULSA Extra point GOOD.31–21
- Q4 8:16TLSATULSA pass complete for a touchdown.31–20
- Q4 10:53ISUIOWA ST 40 yard field goal GOOD.31–14
- Q3 3:16ISUIOWA ST Extra point GOOD.28–14
- Q3 3:16ISUIOWA ST rush for a touchdown.27–14
- Q3 12:36ISUIOWA ST Extra point GOOD.21–14
- Q3 12:36ISUIOWA ST pass complete for a touchdown.20–14
- Q2 0:15ISUIOWA ST Extra point GOOD.14–14
- Q2 0:15ISUIOWA ST pass complete for a touchdown.13–14
- Q2 1:33TLSATULSA Extra point GOOD.7–14
- Q2 1:33TLSATULSA pass complete for a touchdown.7–13
- Q2 4:58TLSATULSA Extra point GOOD.7–7
- Q2 4:58TLSATULSA rush for a touchdown.7–6
- Q1 6:31ISUIOWA ST Extra point GOOD.7–0
- Q1 6:31ISUIOWA ST rush for a touchdown.6–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TLSA Elo 1488, ISU Elo 1509 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TLSA -1.6 (55% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2013
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#58 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #74 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.
The 2013 upset archive →Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →