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Pick the winner of any game still to play, and the rest of the season re-runs around it.
A forecast, not a standing: every percentage is a share of simulated seasons. Through week 2 · 50,000 published seasons · 703 games left to pick. Back to the Playoff Picture →
Your result counts the way a real one would: it also tells the simulation something about how good both teams are, so the seasons that agree with it are the ones it averages. The rest of the season is re-drawn around it — every other game, the conference title games, a fitted selection committee and the 2026 selection rules — in your browser, ten thousand times. Because the seasons that agree with your result are weighted rather than the rest thrown away, the field panel says how many of them are effectively left, and how precise that makes every figure on it.
Memphis's remaining games first, then the other games that move its odds most. Percentages are each side’s chance to win before anything is forced.
Memphis makes the field in 3.8% of the published seasons.
9 games of their own left to set, then the games below that move them most. Their conference title odds are under the field.
50,000 simulated seasons, through week 2 · rebuilt 2026-09-17
A percentage is the share of simulated seasons that end with the team in the field, ±0.4 points.
Notre DameFBS Independents · 2-0 · bye 58%92%
TexasSEC · 2-0 · bye 47%78%
MiamiACC · 1-0 · bye 31%75%
GeorgiaSEC · 1-0 · bye 43%75%
Ohio StateBig Ten · 1-1 · bye 37%69%
Texas TechBig 12 · 1-0 · bye 25%60%
IndianaBig Ten · 1-0 · bye 21%55%
Texas A&MSEC · 2-0 · bye 20%53%
AlabamaSEC · 2-0 · bye 17%48%
LSUSEC · 2-0 · bye 13%42%
UtahBig 12 · 1-0 · bye 11%37%
BYUBig 12 · 1-0 · bye 9.3%33%Next in line
OregonBig Ten · 1-1 · bye 8.4%31%
TennesseeSEC · 1-0 · bye 6.7%27%
SMUACC · 1-0 · bye 4.8%26%
Penn StateBig Ten · 2-0 · bye 4.1%25%
Kansas StateBig 12 · 1-0 · bye 5.5%24%
MichiganBig Ten · 2-0 · bye 3.8%23%Ordered by chance to make the 12-team field, not by seed. The small figure is the chance of a top-four bye.
ACC
Miami63%SMU16%
Louisville5.5%
Virginia4.7%Big Ten
Ohio State46%Indiana22%Oregon16%Penn State5.5%Big 12
Texas Tech35%Utah19%BYU19%Kansas State12%SEC
Georgia34%Texas19%Texas A&M12%Alabama11%American Athletic
UTSA24%
South Florida20%
Memphis14%
East Carolina9.2%Conference USA
Liberty21%
Jacksonville State20%
Delaware16%
Western Kentucky16%Mid-American
Western Michigan38%
Toledo35%
Miami (OH)11%
Ohio8.8%Mountain West
New Mexico33%
UNLV24%
North Dakota State19%
Hawai'i7.4%Pac-12
Boise State44%
San Diego State19%
Washington State10.0%
Fresno State8.6%Sun Belt
James Madison33%
Louisiana16%
Louisiana Tech11%
Old Dominion8.6%