#26Tucker Gregg

RB·Georgia State·20211.9 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Tucker Gregg is a Explosive Back for Georgia State. Tucker's 2021 season ranks in the 8th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 192 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Tucker Gregg's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2021 Production

Rushing

953 Rush yards9 Rush TD192 Carries5.0 Yards/carry

Receiving

2 Receptions12 Rec yards0 Rec TD6.0 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2021 · vs RB peers

Efficiency8
Volume66
Explosiveness40
Consistency72
Receiving2

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)8th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency72th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Peak game: 0.50 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Auburn (SP+ 11).

NIL Market Tier· 2021

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsArmy	L10-43	4.7	—	—	—	—	1	10	0	-0.05
2	@North Carolina	L17-59	6.4	7	31	4.4	0	—	—	—	0.50
3	vsCharlotte	W20-9	-13.7	22	76	3.5	0	—	—	—	0.10
4	@Auburn	L24-34	11.0	12	150	12.5	1	—	—	—	0.50
5	vsApp State	L16-45	10.3	3	10	3.3	0	—	—	—	-0.10
6	@UL Monroe	W55-21	-20.3	15	83	5.5	1	—	—	—	0.45
8	vsTexas State	W28-16	-16.0	21	115	5.5	0	—	—	—	0.31
9	@Georgia Southern	W21-14	-15.3	16	87	5.4	2	—	—	—	0.38
10	@Louisiana	L17-21	8.7	23	99	4.3	1	1	2	0	0.16
11	@Coastal Carolina	W42-40	13.2	18	67	3.7	3	—	—	—	0.31
12	vsArkansas State	W28-20	-17.9	22	98	4.5	1	—	—	—	0.33
13	vsTroy	W37-10	-6.5	17	83	4.9	0	—	—	—	0.08
1	vsBall State	W51-20	-11.2	16	54	3.4	0	—	—	—	-0.05

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

23.2%

Passing plays

0.3%

Rushing plays

36.3%

Standard downs

28.0%

Passing downs

10.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.25
Passing downs: 0.26
Pass / Rush EPA: -0.40 / 0.25

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2021 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.