#3Spencer Sanders

QB·Oklahoma State·2021 20205.5 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Spencer Sanders is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Oklahoma State. Spencer's 2021 season ranks in the 5th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 529 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Spencer Sanders's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2021 Production

Passing

243/391 Comp/Att2839 Pass yards20 Pass TD12 INT62.1% Comp %

Rushing

668 Rush yards6 Rush TD146 Carries4.6 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2021 · vs QB peers

Efficiency5
Volume100
Dual-Threat78
Consistency85
Clutch75

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)5th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency85th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.16 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.80 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Kansas State (SP+ 14).

NIL Market Tier· 2021

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
2	vsTulsa	W28-23	5.8	15/26	173	2	1	64.9	62	0	0.50
3	@Boise State	W21-20	9.4	6/13	82	0	0	52.9	40	1	0.31
4	vsKansas State	W31-20	14.2	22/34	344	2	0	87.4	18	1	0.80
5	vsBaylor	W24-14	15.6	13/23	182	1	3	63.6	76	0	0.37
7	@Texas	W32-24	8.5	19/32	178	1	1	50.9	20	1	0.18
8	@Iowa State	L21-24	14.3	15/24	225	3	0	81.4	29	0	0.40
9	vsKansas	W55-3	-19.7	12/19	157	2	0	77.1	53	1	0.50
10	@West Virginia	W24-3	1.8	21/31	182	2	1	51.2	18	0	0.09
11	vsTCU	W63-17	-0.6	17/25	235	1	0	79.3	53	0	0.49
12	@Texas Tech	W23-0	9.8	19/37	239	1	0	71.8	48	1	0.41
13	vsOklahoma	W37-33	16.8	19/30	214	1	2	60.7	93	1	0.16
14	vsBaylor	L16-21	15.6	31/46	257	0	4	55.6	33	0	0.16
1	vsNotre Dame	W37-35	17.4	34/51	371	4	0	81.4	125	0	0.29

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

54.1%

Passing plays

96.0%

Rushing plays

23.1%

Standard downs

48.9%

Passing downs

66.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.28
Passing downs: 0.46
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.36 / 0.29

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2020 — 2021 · 22 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2020	Oklahoma State	4.0	0.406	—	146.7
2021	Oklahoma State	5.5	0.435	+0.03	247.7

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.