#3Spencer Sanders

QB·Oklahoma State·2021 20204.0 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Spencer Sanders is a 2-year Clutch Passer for Oklahoma State. Spencer's 2020 season ranks in the 20th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 328 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Spencer Sanders's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Passing

155/246 Comp/Att2007 Pass yards14 Pass TD8 INT63.0% Comp %

Rushing

273 Rush yards2 Rush TD100 Carries2.7 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs QB peers

Efficiency20
Volume100
Dual-Threat14
Consistency42
Clutch79

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)20th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency42th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.20 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.49 EPA/play in Wk 9 vs Texas (SP+ 10).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
3	vsTulsa	W16-7	5.6	2/2	23	0	0	9	0	-0.36
8	vsIowa State	W24-21	13.3	20/29	235	1	2	71	1	0.29
9	vsTexas	L34-41	9.7	27/39	400	4	1	11	0	0.49
10	@Kansas State	W20-18	2.0	14/23	108	0	0	9	0	-0.13
12	@Oklahoma	L13-41	17.8	10/19	97	0	1	-9	0	-0.06
13	vsTexas Tech	W50-44	-4.2	19/30	222	1	1	82	1	0.24
14	@TCU	L22-29	1.6	16/34	270	1	1	30	0	-0.00
15	@Baylor	W42-3	1.3	20/30	347	3	2	25	0	0.46
1	vsMiami	W37-34	12.8	27/40	305	4	0	45	0	0.41

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

49.8%

Passing plays

84.7%

Rushing plays

21.4%

Standard downs

45.0%

Passing downs

58.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.16
Passing downs: 0.35
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.32 / -0.03

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2020 — 2021 · 22 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2020	Oklahoma State	4.0	0.406	—	146.7
2021	Oklahoma State	5.5	0.435	+0.03	247.7

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.