#7Spencer Rattler

QB·Oklahoma·20209.8 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Spencer Rattler is a Dual-Threat QB for Oklahoma. Spencer's 2020 season ranks in the 70th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 380 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Spencer Rattler's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Passing

214/317 Comp/Att3031 Pass yards28 Pass TD7 INT67.5% Comp %

Rushing

160 Rush yards6 Rush TD81 Carries2.0 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs QB peers

Efficiency70
Volume100
Dual-Threat69
Consistency84
Clutch78

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)70th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency84th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.20 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.01 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Missouri State.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5
Kaidon Salter	Liberty	2023	486	0.711	14.7	345.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
2	vsMissouri State	W48-0	—	14/17	290	4	0	—	1	0	1.01
4	vsKansas State	L35-38	2.0	30/41	387	4	3	—	-5	0	0.45
5	@Iowa State	L30-37	13.3	25/36	300	2	1	—	20	1	0.46
6	vsTexas	W53-45	9.7	23/35	209	3	1	82.2	51	1	0.35
8	@TCU	W33-14	1.6	13/22	332	2	0	—	7	0	0.64
9	@Texas Tech	W62-28	-4.2	21/30	288	2	0	—	24	0	0.59
10	vsKansas	W62-9	-16.3	15/27	212	1	1	—	3	1	0.37
12	vsOklahoma State	W41-13	14.2	17/24	301	4	0	—	14	1	0.82
14	vsBaylor	W27-14	1.3	20/28	193	2	1	—	-12	0	0.05
16	vsIowa State	W27-21	13.3	22/34	272	1	0	—	17	1	0.19
1	vsFlorida	W55-20	19.8	14/23	247	3	0	76.4	40	1	0.46

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

51.1%

Passing plays

87.6%

Rushing plays

16.1%

Standard downs

45.3%

Passing downs

66.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.38
Passing downs: 0.57
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.49 / 0.25

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2020 · 11 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.