#1Shane Tucker

WR·Middle Tennessee·2015 20140.0 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Shane Tucker is a 2-year Possession Receiver WR for Middle Tennessee. Shane's 2015 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 143 plays — a developing rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Shane Tucker's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2015 Production

Rushing

413 Rush yards2 Rush TD127 Carries3.3 Yards/carry

Receiving

16 Receptions133 Rec yards1 Rec TD8.3 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs WR peers

Efficiency0
Volume56
Explosiveness9
Consistency62
Pass-Down100

Player type

Possession Receiver WR

Chain-mover who earns targets through reliability. High volume, short-to-intermediate routes, consistent floor every week.

High target shareChain moverReliable floor

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency62th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs WR peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.18 from the first to second half of the season.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Shai Werts	Georgia Southern	2017	161	0.150	0.0	24.2
De'Michael Harris	Southern Miss	2019	117	0.130	0.7	15.2
Hyleck Foster	Marshall	2015	101	0.180	0.5	18.2
Davis Bryson	Kennesaw State	2024	97	0.200	0.0	19.4
D.J. Foster	Arizona State	2014	174	0.200	1.0	34.8

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsJackson State	W70-14	—	2	45	22.5	1	33	0.22
2	@Alabama	L10-37	29.0	—	—	—	—	—	-0.56
3	vsCharlotte	W73-14	-21.7	—	—	—	—	—	-0.30
5	vsVanderbilt	L13-17	-1.6	4	16	4.0	0	6	-0.57
8	@Louisiana Tech	L16-45	8.3	—	—	—	—	—	-0.24
10	vsMarshall	W27-24	3.5	2	16	8.0	0	8	0.05
11	@Florida Atlantic	W24-17	-9.8	1	20	20.0	0	20	-0.08
12	vsNorth Texas	W41-7	-25.0	2	24	12.0	0	12	0.01
13	@UTSA	W42-7	-17.7	2	5	2.5	0	9	-0.10
1	vsWestern Michigan	L31-45	4.9	3	7	2.3	0	7	-0.42

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

19.6%

Passing plays

7.1%

Rushing plays

32.8%

Standard downs

22.5%

Passing downs

12.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: -0.26
Passing downs: 0.20
Pass / Rush EPA: -0.10 / -0.21

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 — 2015 · 21 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2014	Middle Tennessee	1.6	0.320	—	31.0
2015	Middle Tennessee	0.0	0.040	-0.28	4.5

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.