#7Shane Buechele

QB·SMU·2020 201911.3 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Shane Buechele is a 2-year Clutch Passer for SMU. Shane's 2019 season ranks in the 60th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 531 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Shane Buechele's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Passing

307/490 Comp/Att3930 Pass yards34 Pass TD10 INT62.7% Comp %

Rushing

105 Rush yards2 Rush TD64 Carries1.6 Yards/carry

Punting

7 Punts272 Punt yards38.9 Yards/punt44 Long2 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs QB peers

Efficiency60
Volume100
Dual-Threat35
Consistency83
Clutch71

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)60th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency83th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.13 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.70 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs South Florida (SP+ -10).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Ryan Higgins	Louisiana Tech	2016	571	0.586	13.7	334.6
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Arkansas State	W37-30	-2.9	30/49	360	0	1	58.9	3	0	0.20
2	vsNorth Texas	W49-27	-6.1	21/31	292	3	0	94.6	24	0	0.68
3	vsTexas State	W47-17	-16.2	14/18	219	2	2	59.9	6	0	0.45
4	@TCU	W41-38	6.7	23/34	288	2	1	64.0	30	1	0.26
5	@South Florida	W48-21	-9.8	21/25	226	3	1	97.2	27	1	0.70
6	vsTulsa	W43-37	-2.5	23/40	280	2	0	57.5	-15	0	0.25
8	vsTemple	W45-21	3.2	30/53	457	6	1	80.7	-4	0	0.49
9	@Houston	W34-31	-4.3	20/38	203	2	1	40.1	-6	0	-0.02
10	@Memphis	L48-54	18.0	34/54	456	3	0	—	-13	0	0.35
11	vsEast Carolina	W59-51	-14.0	33/46	414	5	1	—	11	0	0.67
13	@Navy	L28-35	9.9	16/28	251	2	0	—	22	0	0.27
14	vsTulane	W37-20	7.5	15/27	180	3	1	—	20	0	0.26
1	@Florida Atlantic	L28-52	-0.6	27/47	304	1	1	—	0	0	0.25

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

52.5%

Passing plays

97.5%

Rushing plays

9.4%

Standard downs

41.9%

Passing downs

75.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.28
Passing downs: 0.43
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.37 / 0.07

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 — 2020 · 23 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2019	SMU	11.3	0.524	—	307.0
2020	SMU	8.4	0.482	-0.04	203.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.