#1Payton Thorne

QB·Auburn·2024 20215.9 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Payton Thorne is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Auburn. Payton's 2024 season ranks in the 23th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 418 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Payton Thorne's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Passing

199/317 Comp/Att2713 Pass yards21 Pass TD9 INT62.8% Comp %

Rushing

283 Rush yards2 Rush TD112 Carries2.5 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs QB peers

Efficiency23
Volume100
Dual-Threat65
Consistency77
Clutch72

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)23th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency77th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.19 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.11 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Alabama A&M.

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsAlabama A&M	W73-3	—	13/21	322	4	0	95.1	49	1	1.11
2	vsCalifornia	L14-21	4.0	14/27	165	1	4	28.9	43	1	0.15
4	vsArkansas	L14-24	11.0	13/22	213	2	1	62.1	10	0	0.45
5	vsOklahoma	L21-27	9.5	21/32	338	3	1	65.5	23	0	0.53
6	@Georgia	L13-31	24.3	16/27	200	0	0	68.1	22	0	0.23
8	@Missouri	L17-21	14.0	17/29	176	1	0	43.1	18	0	0.01
9	@Kentucky	W24-10	5.5	20/26	172	1	1	76.0	10	0	0.19
10	vsVanderbilt	L7-17	4.9	20/29	239	1	0	52.9	1	0	0.20
12	vsUL Monroe	W48-14	-16.7	22/32	286	5	0	86.1	27	0	0.48
13	vsTexas A&M	W43-41	17.0	19/31	301	2	1	77.3	38	0	0.38
14	@Alabama	L14-28	25.0	24/41	301	1	1	63.5	42	0	0.28

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

60.0%

Passing plays

92.1%

Rushing plays

25.4%

Standard downs

53.9%

Passing downs

73.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.28
Passing downs: 0.44
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.37 / 0.22

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2021 — 2024 · 24 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2021	Michigan State	9.4	0.566	—	261.0
2024	Auburn	5.9	0.429	-0.14	179.4

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.