#12Nathan Rourke

QB·Ohio·2019 2018 20176.8 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Nathan Rourke is a 3-year Dual-Threat QB for Ohio. Nathan's 2019 season ranks in the 35th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 470 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Nathan Rourke's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Passing

200/328 Comp/Att2820 Pass yards20 Pass TD5 INT61.0% Comp %

Rushing

867 Rush yards13 Rush TD154 Carries5.6 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs QB peers

Efficiency35
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency79
Clutch54

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)35th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency79th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:→ Stable

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸9 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.23 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.77 EPA/play in Wk 14 vs Akron (SP+ -30).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsRhode Island	W41-20	—	16/22	188	2	0	95.5	75	1	0.62
2	@Pittsburgh	L10-20	4.1	15/27	177	0	0	15.7	-43	0	-0.14
3	@Marshall	L31-33	-1.9	15/25	215	3	0	93.2	118	1	0.64
4	vsLouisiana	L25-45	9.6	18/38	277	1	3	26.7	37	0	-0.04
6	@Buffalo	W21-20	-2.0	12/19	155	0	1	52.0	63	1	-0.01
7	vsNorthern Illinois	L36-39	-13.9	19/31	258	2	0	78.3	80	1	0.49
8	vsKent State	W45-38	-10.2	19/28	342	2	0	94.6	79	2	0.71
9	@Ball State	W34-21	-4.5	8/16	131	0	1	93.8	127	2	0.40
11	vsMiami (OH)	L21-24	-9.2	15/27	133	1	0	—	89	2	0.41
12	vsWestern Michigan	L34-37	-4.9	20/29	225	2	0	—	93	0	0.35
13	@Bowling Green	W66-24	-27.5	14/21	267	3	0	—	25	1	0.54
14	@Akron	W52-3	-29.8	20/28	308	4	0	—	37	1	0.77
1	vsNevada	W30-21	-12.3	9/17	144	0	0	—	87	1	0.45

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

55.2%

Passing plays

98.3%

Rushing plays

26.6%

Standard downs

47.5%

Passing downs

73.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.36
Passing downs: 0.43
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.32 / 0.56

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 — 2019 · 38 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2017	Ohio	7.2	0.475	—	198.0
2018	Ohio	8.6	0.526	+0.05	226.0
2019	Ohio	6.8	0.455	-0.07	219.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.