#12Nathan Rourke

QB·Ohio·2019 2018 20178.6 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Nathan Rourke is a 3-year Dual-Threat QB for Ohio. Nathan's 2018 season ranks in the 68th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 399 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Nathan Rourke's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Passing

165/275 Comp/Att2431 Pass yards23 Pass TD8 INT60.0% Comp %

Rushing

860 Rush yards15 Rush TD134 Carries6.4 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs QB peers

Efficiency68
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency79
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)68th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency79th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:→ Stable

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.11 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.10 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs Bowling Green (SP+ -22).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsHoward	W38-32	—	2/8	44	0	0	16	0	-0.03
3	@Virginia	L31-45	7.1	16/31	246	2	0	41	0	0.14
4	@Cincinnati	L30-34	5.4	12/27	178	1	1	96	1	0.34
5	vsMassachusetts	W58-42	-16.1	23/32	270	3	1	189	1	0.47
6	@Kent State	W27-26	-20.4	18/20	284	1	1	49	1	0.46
7	@Northern Illinois	L21-24	-2.7	15/23	275	2	1	0	0	0.43
8	vsBowling Green	W49-14	-22.0	8/12	193	4	0	101	1	1.10
9	vsBall State	W52-14	-18.9	11/19	127	1	1	77	2	0.31
10	@Western Michigan	W59-14	-10.7	12/14	149	3	0	68	2	0.88
11	@Miami (OH)	L28-30	-0.7	16/27	163	2	0	16	0	0.16
12	vsBuffalo	W52-17	-1.1	17/26	209	3	1	77	1	0.50
13	vsAkron	W49-28	-19.3	5/14	87	0	1	86	4	0.29
1	vsSan Diego State	W27-0	6.0	10/22	206	1	1	44	2	0.34

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

46.2%

Passing plays

88.6%

Rushing plays

21.9%

Standard downs

41.5%

Passing downs

58.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.29
Passing downs: 0.65
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.31 / 0.68

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 — 2019 · 38 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2017	Ohio	7.2	0.475	—	198.0
2018	Ohio	8.6	0.526	+0.05	226.0
2019	Ohio	6.8	0.455	-0.07	219.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.