#22Najee Harris

RB·Alabama·2020 20193.7 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Najee Harris is a 2-year Featured Back for Alabama. Najee's 2019 season ranks in the 75th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 224 plays — a above-average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Najee Harris's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Rushing

1224 Rush yards13 Rush TD209 Carries5.9 Yards/carry

Receiving

27 Receptions304 Rec yards7 Rec TD11.3 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs RB peers

Efficiency75
Volume81
Explosiveness58
Consistency78
Receiving52

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)75th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency78th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the RB position (75th percentile).
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.19 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.67 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs South Carolina (SP+ 5).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Nick Wilson	Arizona	2014	250	0.410	5.2	102.5

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsDuke	W42-3	-1.8	12	52	4.3	0	—	—	—	-0.15
2	vsNew Mexico State	W62-10	-22.0	12	68	5.7	1	1	12	0	0.35
3	@South Carolina	W47-23	4.8	7	36	5.1	0	5	87	2	0.67
4	vsSouthern Miss	W49-7	-4.8	14	110	7.9	0	1	5	1	0.56
5	vsOle Miss	W59-31	2.9	9	71	7.9	0	2	0	0	-0.12
7	@Texas A&M	W47-28	15.0	20	114	5.7	0	3	19	1	0.09
8	vsTennessee	W35-13	10.8	21	105	5.0	2	4	48	0	0.40
9	vsArkansas	W48-7	-10.6	13	86	6.6	2	—	—	—	0.56
11	vsLSU	L41-46	33.1	19	146	7.7	1	3	44	1	0.48
12	@Mississippi State	W38-7	3.5	17	88	5.2	3	3	51	1	0.54
13	vsWestern Carolina	W66-3	—	14	66	4.7	1	1	12	1	0.39
14	@Auburn	L45-48	21.0	27	146	5.4	1	4	26	0	0.24
1	vsMichigan	W35-16	20.7	24	136	5.7	2	—	—	—	0.31

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

28.5%

Passing plays

8.1%

Rushing plays

49.5%

Standard downs

32.2%

Passing downs

18.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.31
Passing downs: 0.41
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.79 / 0.25

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 — 2020 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2019	Alabama	3.7	0.370	—	77.0
2020	Alabama	5.9	0.440	+0.07	121.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.