#10McKenzie Milton

QB·UCF·2018 201714.7 pts line value1st Round

McKenzie Milton is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for UCF. McKenzie's 2017 season ranks in the 85th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 487 plays — a above-average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So McKenzie Milton's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2017 Production

Passing

265/395 Comp/Att4037 Pass yards37 Pass TD9 INT67.1% Comp %

Rushing

613 Rush yards8 Rush TD106 Carries5.8 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs QB peers

Efficiency85
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency88
Clutch80

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)85th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency88th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the QB position (85th percentile).
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸10 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.17 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.17 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Cincinnati (SP+ -6).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Malik Cunningham	Louisville	2021	502	0.681	14.7	341.6
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5
Kaidon Salter	Liberty	2023	486	0.711	14.7	345.6
Blake Sims	Alabama	2014	473	0.696	15.4	329.4
Dillon Gabriel	Oklahoma	2023	473	0.732	16.1	346.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsFlorida International	W61-17	-10.4	16/21	360	4	1	93.2	4	0	1.07
4	@Maryland	W38-10	-4.5	18/30	178	1	0	84.0	94	0	0.39
5	vsMemphis	W40-13	7.8	19/31	253	3	1	71.9	88	0	0.38
6	@Cincinnati	W51-23	-6.4	16/19	374	5	0	99.2	6	0	1.17
7	vsEast Carolina	W63-21	-14.0	21/27	324	2	0	89.4	6	1	0.66
8	@Navy	W31-21	-0.7	15/23	233	1	1	77.9	47	0	0.47
9	vsAustin Peay	W73-33	—	24/26	275	3	0	95.7	9	1	0.72
10	@SMU	W31-24	-2.9	23/40	412	1	2	67.7	44	1	0.38
11	vsUConn	W49-24	-19.2	24/36	311	2	0	86.6	52	1	0.46
12	@Temple	W45-19	0.5	16/23	208	4	0	92.2	23	1	0.75
13	vsSouth Florida	W49-42	10.2	29/44	373	4	1	72.4	56	1	0.48
14	vsMemphis	W62-55	7.8	28/40	494	5	3	91.6	68	1	0.60
1	vsAuburn	W34-27	24.7	16/35	242	2	0	88.7	116	1	0.47

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

53.2%

Passing plays

92.4%

Rushing plays

19.7%

Standard downs

48.3%

Passing downs

65.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.49
Passing downs: 0.69
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.56 / 0.56

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 — 2018 · 23 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2017	UCF	14.7	0.629	—	317.5
2018	UCF	9.7	0.617	-0.01	222.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.