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UCF

UCF Knights

Big 12·1-1·
Compare
Elo
1465#75
SP+
5.9#47
FPI
4.8
AP
NR
Nextvs Georgia State · Wk 3Win prob 89%Model -18.9
Talent #66 (672.1)Recruiting class #6625% production returning

Team Leaders

Latest on UCF

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UCF's Short-yardage power is Pittsburgh's real problem

Matchup · 6d ago

UCF runs away from Bethune-Cookman, 73-6

Matchup · Sep 4

Roster · 110 players

FR 39SO 16JR 20SR 35
#PlayerPosClHtWt
8Rocco MarriottQBFR6'4"220
10Kaleb AnnettQBSO6'3"200
12Keyone JenkinsQBSR6'0"200
14Alonza Barnett IIIQBSR5'11"210
16Dante CarrQBFR6'4"220
4Taevion SwintRBFR5'10"185
11Landen ChambersRBJR5'11"215
20Kaj BakerRBFR5'8"160
24Arthur Lewis IVRBFR5'10"180
26Duke WatsonRBJR5'11"185
35Agyeman AddaeRBSO5'10"190
42Chance NixonRBFR5'9"179
2Tyren HornesWRFR6'0"175
3Jonathan BibbsWRSO6'1"180
5Josh DerryWRSR5'9"182
6Ric'Darious FarmerWRSO6'0"160
7Duane Thomas Jr.WRSR5'8"175
9Waden CharlesWRSO6'2"195
13Caleb RollersonWRSO6'2"210
23Jordan NunuhaWRFR6'3"195
39Andrea ParisiWRSO5'11"195
80Elijah HardyWRFR6'0"180
81Zack PalmerWRFR6'0"190
82Jordyn BridgewaterWRSO6'0"165
85Carson HinshawWRSO5'10"165
86Chase HinshawWRFR6'2"181
0Dylan WadeTESR6'2"240
18Caden PieningTEFR6'5"245
47Sam PowellTEFR6'3"205
83Dylan BurkTESO6'7"255
84Thomas WadsworthTESR6'3"245
87Brooks HallTEFR6'5"225
88Grayson BrousseauTESO6'5"245
53LaParka LangstonOLJR6'7"285
54Cooper TerpstraOLJR6'4"305
55Jacob MaiavaOLFR6'2"280
57Camp LottOLFR6'6"290
58Connor MeadowsOLSR6'4"300
61Owen SpellOLSR6'8"305
66Brady WayburnOLSR6'5"305
67Noah SenkaOLSO6'2"295
68Ethan HigginsOLJR6'6"270
70RaiShaun McHaneyOLFR6'8"270
71Amahn WilliamsOLFR6'4"280
72Dominick CampbellOLSR6'9"310
73Henry TabansiOLJR6'5"306
74Matthew PrigmoreOLJR6'3"315
75Tyler GibsonOLSR6'5"308
76Justin RoyesOLJR6'5"300
77Kasiyah CharltonOLFR6'7"315
78Preston CushmanOLSR6'5"305
79Daniel MarcellinusOLFR6'11"275
6Isaiah NixonEDGEJR6'4"245
10Sincere EdwardsEDGEJR6'3"250
11Ken TalleyEDGESR6'3"260
12Aymeric KoumbaEDGEJR6'5"245
41Bruno DallEDGEJR6'7"260
45Quentin HatchEDGESR6'1"225
56Patrick RyanEDGEFR6'4"220
94LA Jessie HarroldEDGEFR6'5"260
96Anthony CoaxumEDGESO6'4"270
98Alhassan IddrissuEDGEFR6'6"250
0Horace LockettDTSR6'6"355
42Artavius JonesDTSO6'3"325
54Trenton TurnerDTFR6'2"320
55Noah MercerDTFR6'5"290
90Mujahid JeffersonDTFR6'3"280
91Donteye DrewDTSR6'2"240
92Jeffson LafontantDTJR6'3"295
93Brad Gurley Jr.DTSR6'2"300
95RJ Jackson Jr.DTSR6'3"310
97Josh SchellDTSR6'4"300
99Thomas CollinsDTJR6'1"295
15Preston HallLBFR6'3"220
19Rashad HenryLBJR6'2"220
20Lewis CarterLBSR6'0"225
23Jayden BurnettLBFR6'2"210
24Tackett CurtisLBSR6'2"230
32Matthew OcchipintiLBFR6'3"235
33Phil PicciottiLBJR6'3"230
34Jahleel CulbreathLBSR6'4"222
36Dylan BennettLBFR5'11"210
38Jayden JenningsLBSR6'4"235
43Cole KozlowskiLBSR6'2"230
47Arthur KingdomLBJR6'4"230
1Jayden BellamyDBSR6'1"190
2Jayden WilliamsDBSR5'11"190
4Braeden MarshallDBSR5'10"200
5DJ BellDBSR6'2"185
7Antione JacksonDBSR6'1"185
8Demari HendersonDBSR6'0"185
14Kahmel JohnsonDBSO6'2"200
16Antonio Branch Jr.DBFR6'3"175
17Jailen DuffieDBJR5'11"175
18Caleb FlaggDBSR5'10"200
21Ty BartrumDBSR6'1"205
22Amarion QueenDBFR6'2"185
25Rukeem StroudDBFR5'11"165
26Elijah KeysDBFR6'2"180
27Nicholas AntoineDBSR6'4"205
28Matt IrwinDBJR5'11"180
29Tyce PorcherDBFR6'1"190
30Otis HardyDBFR6'0"180
49Donnell Johnson IIIDBJR—180
31Noah McGoughPKFR5'11"175
97Mason DenaburgPKFR6'4"225
15Will StonePSR6'2"195
49Atticus BertramsPSR6'4"235
37Rocklyn KelleyLSFR6'1"225
44Kyle HicksLSSO6'3"235

Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank

Points / game
40.0
scoring offense
Points allowed
9.0
scoring defense
Differential
+31.0
per game
Offense
Total yards / game
383.0#83
Yards / play
6.8#41
Passing yards / game
193.0#99
Rushing yards / game
190.0#52
First downs / game
17.5#109
3rd down %
42.9%#64
4th down %
0.0%#114
Time of possession
25:57#125
Defense
Yards allowed / game
248.0#27
Yards / play allowed
3.8#16
Pass yards allowed / game
143.0#29
Rush yards allowed / game
105.0#57
3rd down % allowed
23.5%#17
Sacks
4#60
Tackles for loss
14#29
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
+1#41
Takeaways
2#76
Giveaways
1#21
Penalties / game
7.5#90
Penalty yards / game
52.5#58

Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.

Scouting Report · 2026 projection

balanced

UCF is in year 2 under Scott Frost, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 6th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 130th at staying out of the backfield, and they are 123rd on early downs defensively.

On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.7%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −29.2% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.

UCF has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.

Projected strengths

  • Offensehitting chunk plays
    #6
    projected
  • Defensehitting chunk plays
    #7
    projected

Projected soft spots

  • Offensegetting stopped at the line
    #130
    projected
  • Defensefirst and second down
    #123
    projected
  • Defensemoving the ball on the ground
    #121
    projected

Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.

2026 Season Projection

model win prob · 10 to play
5.5 – 6.5
projected final record (now 1–1)
Exp. wins left
4.5
of 10 games
Bowl odds
51%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
89%
vs Georgia State
Toughest
12%
vs BYU

How the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left

Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.

1234567891011
final winstallest bar = 26% chance
Likeliest finish 5-7 (26%)Bowl eligible 51% · marked on the axis at 6

Player Value

EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).

Unit Value — Total EPA
WRRic'Darious Farmer, Waden Charles +4
+13.6 EPA
QBAlonza Barnett, Keyone Jenkins
+6.9 EPA
TEDylan Wade, Caden Piening
+3.4 EPA
RBLanden Chambers, Duke Watson +1
+3.0 EPA

Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.

Estimated NIL Market Value
ESTIMATED
QBAlonza Barnett
~$519K
EPA +6.80.107/play64 snaps

Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.

The Five Factors

ranked vs. FBS · bar = better
Efficiency (PPA)
Off0.1019th#112
Def-0.1191st#13
Explosiveness
Off1.2852nd#67
Def1.1568th#45
Field position
Off63.17th#128
Def72.452nd#67
Finishing (pts/opp)
Off5.0879th#30
Def1.7093rd#11
Turnovers
Won 2Lost 1
Margin +1

Opponent-adjusted efficiency

EPA/play vs. schedule
Offense
—
Defense
—
Off · pass
0.1417th#115
Off · rush
0.1550th#70

Pass vs. rush (PPA)

Rushing
Off0.1548th#72
Def-0.2693rd#10
Passing
Off0.1416th#116
Def0.1466th#48

Trenches & disruption

Line yards (off)
2.27#130
2nd-level / open-field
1.34 / 1.94
Power / stuff (off)
50.0% / 17.1%
Havoc — total (def)
16.4%#63
Havoc — front 7 / DB
12.7% / 3.7%

Standard vs. passing downs

Pro
Std downs
Off-0.05
Def-0.40
Pass downs
Off0.37
Def0.29

PPA on each down type (off vs. def).

Opponent-adjusted by down

Pro
1st2nd3rd
Offense0.18#43-0.16#1270.50#72
Defense-0.47#10.09#620.10#26

Elo Trajectory

Bethune-CookmanFinal
Elo rating 1465 → 1468+3 over season

Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams

Plot these →
worst in FBSbest

Efficiency

  • Offense EPA/play0.2455th
  • Defense EPA/play allowed-0.0884th
  • Offense success rate42%39th
  • Defense success rate allowed29%88th

Downs

  • Offense success — standard downs48%41st
  • Offense success — passing downs32%49th
  • Defense success allowed — standard downs31%89th
  • Defense success allowed — passing downs25%61st

Explosiveness

  • Offense explosiveness1.482nd
  • Defense explosiveness allowed1.170th
  • Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.156th
  • Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.591st

Trenches

  • Offense line yards2.48th
  • Defense line yards allowed2.187th
  • Offense highlight yards2.589th
  • Defense highlight yards allowed0.3082nd
  • Offense power success0.6736th
  • Defense power success allowed0.7931st
  • Offense stuff rate0.2031st
  • Defense stuff rate0.2884th

Third down

  • Third down conversion43%50th
  • Third down distance faced8.66th
  • Third down conversion allowed24%87th
  • Third down distance forced8.279th

Halves

  • Net success rate — first half0.1775th
  • Net success rate — second half0.1368th

Drives

  • Points per drive0.467th
  • Points per drive allowed0.9188th
  • Average starting field position2415th
  • Opponent starting field position2857th
  • Available yards gained25%8th
  • Available yards allowed37%81st
  • Scoring opportunities per drive73%36th
  • Scoring opportunities allowed91%24th
  • Points per scoring opportunity0.635th
  • Points allowed per opportunity1.095th
  • Three-and-out rate27%40th
  • Three-and-outs forced36%82nd

Roster

  • Returning usage20%21st
  • Returning EPA62.333rd
  • Team talent composite67253rd
  • Recruiting class rank66.053rd
  • Recruiting class points19453rd

Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.

Intelligence Report

⚡

Offensive DNA

Balanced offense — below average EPA/play nationally
EPA/play
+0.104#112 · bottom 20%
Pass EPA/play
+0.141#116
Rush EPA/play
+0.146#72
Explosiveness
1.283#67
Pts/opportunity
5.08#30
Success rate
39.3%

Near-equal efficiency edge: 0.005 EPA/play

🛡

Defensive Identity

Disruptive defense — top 10 nationally in EPA/play allowed
EPA/play allowed
-0.106#13 · top 20%
Havoc rate (total)
16.4%#63
Front-7 havoc
12.7%
DB havoc
3.7%
Big play rate allowed
1.154#45
Success rate allowed
28.7%

Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.

📊

Season Signature

40.0 PPG offense, 9.0 allowed — +31.0 margin/game
Points per game
40.0
Points allowed/game
9.0
Scoring margin/game
+31.0
Turnover margin
+1won 2 · lost 1
Production returning
25%
Talent rank (247)
#66

1-1 record through 2 games.

Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th

OFFENSE19thEXPLOSIVENESS52thFINISHING79thFIELD POS7thDEFENSE91thHAVOC55th50th100th
Offense
19th
Explosiveness
52th
Finishing
79th
Field Pos
7th
Defense
91th
Havoc
55th

Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.

CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed

Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.

Overall
+3.6
#57
Offense
-5.2
#101
Defense
-8.8
#26
Full CORE ratings →

What a possession is worth · 11 drives

MeasureOffenseDefense
Points per drive0.460.91
Starting field positionown 24.1own 27.5
Available yards24.9%36.7%
Scoring opportunities72.7%90.9%
Points per opportunity0.631.00
Three-and-out rate27.3%36.4%
Every team’s drive efficiency →

Play-calling identity

Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.

Pass rate
63.8%
Expected, given the spots
56.9%
Over expected
+6.9
Fourth down vs peers
+28
Fourth down vs the model
+33
All play-calling tendencies →

National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play

Each dot = one FBS team. UCF is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.

ELITEDEF. FORTRESSOFF. POWERHOUSEREBUILDING-0.100.00+0.10+0.20+0.30-0.050.00+0.10+0.20Offensive EPA/play← worsebetter →Defensive EPA allowed/play← worsebetter →

Similar Programs

Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to UCF in 2026

by EPA/play distance
SyracuseSP+ +2.7
Off EPA/play +0.158Def EPA/play -0.087Elo 1288
Match
96%
VanderbiltSP+ +12.1
Off EPA/play +0.116Def EPA/play -0.036Elo 1753
Match
96%
Georgia SouthernSP+ -5.8
Off EPA/play +0.144Def EPA/play -0.166Elo 1376
Match
96%
OklahomaSP+ +21.7
Off EPA/play +0.175Def EPA/play -0.099Elo 1799
Match
96%
MichiganSP+ +12.2
Off EPA/play +0.125Def EPA/play -0.018Elo 1686
Match
95%
BaylorSP+ +4.9
Off EPA/play +0.166Def EPA/play -0.043Elo 1506
Match
95%

Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.

Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team

2015: -26.9, #126 of 1282016: -1.7, #73 of 1282017: +23.9, #10 of 1302018: +14.1, #20 of 1302019: +18.8, #18 of 1302020: +7.0, #38 of 1242021: +1.9, #66 of 1302022: +2.5, #60 of 1312023: +11.4, #29 of 1332024: +11.2, #32 of 1342025: -5.0, #80 of 1362026: +3.6, #57 of 138
20152026
Now +3.6 · #57 of 138Best +23.9 in 2017Worst -26.9 in 2015

Program History

recent seasons
YearOverallConfWin %xWLuck
20261-10-0
50%
1.1-0.1
20255-72-7
42%
5.8-0.8
20244-82-7
33%
7.4-3.4
20236-73-6
46%
9.3-3.3
20229-56-3
64%
8.6+0.4
20219-45-3
69%
7.3+1.7
20206-45-3
60%
6.4-0.4
201910-36-2
77%
9.6+0.4
201812-19-0
92%
10.8+1.2
201713-09-0
100%
11.1+1.9

xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).

2.2%of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons end with them in the field

0-1 so far, projected to finish 6.0-6.0. Wins the Big 12 in 1.8%.

If they finish with…

98%
1 loss
49%
2 losses
7.1%
3 losses
0.3%
4 losses

Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 1.

Win out and it is 98%. Running the table still leaves it to the committee.

down 0.8 points since preseason.

  • At 2 losses they are 49% where the average Big 12 team is 56%.
  • The Big 12 takes 1.77 bids in an average season, and four or more in 1.9%.

UCF’s own turning points

Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.

  • wk8vs BYU6.0
  • wk5at Houston4.7
  • wk6at Oklahoma State4.6
  • wk4vs TCU3.7
  • wk10at Kansas3.7
  • wk13at Colorado3.7

Who to root for

Games UCF is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.

  • wk10West Virginia over Texas Tech1.1
  • wk9Arizona over Texas Tech0.9
  • wk12Baylor over Texas Tech0.7
  • wk9Penn State over Purdue0.7
  • wk11Oklahoma State over Texas Tech0.6
  • wk4Virginia over Delaware0.6
The full playoff picture →

Big 12

0-0 in league play, projected 4.1-4.911 of 16 by title odds
1.8%
Wins the Big 12
5.2%
Reaches the title game

The Big 12 sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 46% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.

  • wk8BYU at UCF4.9
  • wk5UCF at Houston3.7
  • wk6UCF at Oklahoma State3.7
  • wk10UCF at Kansas3.0

Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Big 12 race →

If not the playoff, then

59%
Bowl eligible
50%
Placed in a bowl
2.2%
In the playoff
48%
Season over in November

UCF is 1-1 and needs 5 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 6.5% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.

  • First Responder Bowl8.1%
  • Independence Bowl7.1%
  • Rate Bowl6.5%
  • Liberty Bowl6.0%
  • Xbox Bowl4.7%
  • Pop-Tarts Bowl4.6%

Every bowl, and how each one picks →

Recruiting Pipelines

since 2010

Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 8 have sent UCF a player since 2010 — 32 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of UCF's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.

High schoolSignedDrafted
Miami CentralFL91
Miami SouthridgeFL60
Dr. PhillipsFL40
ArmwoodFL30
LakelandFL30
Miami Carol CityFL30
LakewoodFL21
East LakeFL20
All 170 high-school pipelines →
✓/✗ = whether our pregame model picked the winner. Win % & projections from the Gridpex model. Data: CollegeFootballData.