What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025
How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.
- Usage share (volume)0.52Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
- EPA per play (efficiency)0.10Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
- Total EPA (value)0.41Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons
Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Duke Watson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.
2026 Production
Performance Analysis · 2026 · vs RB peers
- Efficiency100
- Volume39
- Explosiveness100
- Consistency50
- Receiving94
Third-down weapon out of the backfield. Routes, hands, and separation in coverage define this role as much as rushing.
- ▸Top-10% efficiency among RBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
- ▸Peak game: 1.11 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Bethune-Cookman.
NIL Market Tier· 2026
On3 valuation ↗Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 2.45
- Passing downs
- 0.60
- Pass / Rush EPA
- — / 1.34
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).