Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (HOU Elo 1512, UCF Elo 1448) plus home-field advantage. That projects HOU -8.3 (73% to win), essentially in line with the market.
No ruled-out starters
Estimates from our player value-over-replacement model (reliable for QBs; softer elsewhere) — a calibrated prior, not a market or backtested figure. Context only, not a betting edge.
Pick: HOU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Gridpex's model favors Houston with a 73% win probability.
The model projects Houston by 8.3.
Time TBD, at TDECU Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I make this Houston at 73% to win, projecting Houston by 8.3.
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