Boone Pickens StadiumConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
OKST 1110
UCF 1448
Projected spread
OKST +11.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
UCF
80% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
20%
OKST (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (OKST Elo 1110, UCF Elo 1448) plus home-field advantage. That projects OKST +11.3 (20% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelUCF 80% · OKST 20%
Pick: UCF
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
UCF2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedOKST
Offense
0.14
PPA / play
0.0139%
Success rate
35%1.38
Key matchups · Pro
- UCF pass offense (0.18 PPA) vs. OKST pass defense (0.44 allowed) — edge OKST.
- OKST rush offense (-0.04 PPA) vs. UCF rush defense (0.12 allowed) — edge UCF.
- OKST pass offense (0.07 PPA) vs. UCF pass defense (0.16 allowed) — edge UCF.
FAQ
Who will win UCF vs. Oklahoma State?
Gridpex's model favors UCF with a 80% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for UCF vs. Oklahoma State?
The model projects UCF by 11.3.
What time is UCF vs. Oklahoma State and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Boone Pickens Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this UCF at 80% to win, projecting UCF by 11.3.