Georgia State vs. UCF Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where UCF gets at Georgia State: 8th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 81st at keeping everything in front of them. Georgia State projects no clear way in against UCF. UCF is also 86th at running it, against a unit 121st.
How
UCFattacks
GAST
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
UCF#8 of 138GAST#81 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · projected
UCF#86 of 138GAST#121 of 138
The two teams
Georgia State
Georgia State is in year 2 under Dell McGee. The way in is 134th at closing out passing downs, and they are 130th at defending the pass.
Georgia State has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected soft spots
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#134projected
- Defensethrowing it#130projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#130projected
UCF
UCF is in year 2 under Scott Frost, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 4th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 129th at staying out of the backfield, and they are 121st on early downs defensively.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.5%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −28.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
UCF has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#4projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#8projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#129projected
- Defensefirst and second down#121projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#120projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UCF Elo 1468, GAST Elo 1283 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UCF -18.9 (89% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
GAST17th26thUCFUCF43rd34thGASTThrough the air
GAST40th42ndUCFUCF97th26thGASTOn the ground
GAST14th62ndUCFUCF53rd38thGASTStaying on the field
GAST16th24thUCFUCF67th44thGASTTaking care of it
GAST1st53rdUCFUCF31st118thGAST
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| GAST | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| -8.1 (#100) | CORE overall | -2.0 (#80) |
| -3 / +5 | offense / defense | -4 / -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Georgia State vs. UCF?
Gridpex's model favors UCF with a 89% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Georgia State vs. UCF?
The model projects UCF by 18.9.
What time is Georgia State vs. UCF and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM ET, at FBC Mortgage Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →