#9Marion Lukes

RB·Central Michigan·2024

Marion Lukes is a Featured Back for Central Michigan. Marion's 2024 season ranks in the 8th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 162 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Marion Lukes's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Rushing

788 Rush yards5 Rush TD161 Carries4.9 Yards/carry

Receiving

16 Receptions160 Rec yards1 Rec TD10.0 Yards/rec

Returns

21 Kick returns342 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs RB peers

Efficiency8
Volume73
Explosiveness38
Consistency67
Receiving42

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)8th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency67th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.47 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs San Diego State (SP+ -15).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
2	vsFlorida International	L16-52	-12.1	10	37	3.7	0	—	—	—	0.03
3	@Illinois	L9-30	9.6	7	13	1.9	0	2	10	0	-0.16
4	vsBall State	W37-34	-19.8	13	86	6.6	1	1	3	0	0.19
5	vsSan Diego State	W22-21	-15.4	16	76	4.8	0	3	57	1	0.47
7	vsOhio	L25-27	2.3	20	110	5.5	3	5	31	0	0.35
8	@Eastern Michigan	L34-38	-13.3	13	118	9.1	0	1	22	0	0.47
9	@Miami (OH)	L7-46	1.3	15	25	1.7	0	—	—	—	0.03
11	vsBowling Green	L13-23	-1.8	20	72	3.6	0	—	—	—	0.04
12	@Toledo	L10-37	-2.5	19	80	4.2	1	2	5	0	0.07
13	vsWestern Michigan	W16-14	-10.2	15	93	6.2	0	1	12	0	0.35
14	@Northern Illinois	L16-24	-3.5	13	78	6.0	0	1	20	0	0.11

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

25.4%

Passing plays

5.8%

Rushing plays

40.0%

Standard downs

28.2%

Passing downs

20.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.17
Passing downs: 0.41
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.88 / 0.16

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).