#7Malik Willis

QB·Liberty·2021 20205.3 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Malik Willis is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Liberty. Malik's 2021 season ranks in the 8th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 506 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Malik Willis's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2021 Production

Passing

207/339 Comp/Att2857 Pass yards27 Pass TD12 INT61.1% Comp %

Rushing

878 Rush yards13 Rush TD197 Carries4.5 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2021 · vs QB peers

Efficiency8
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency82
Clutch18

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)8th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency82th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸9 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.29 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.95 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs UAB (SP+ 9).

NIL Market Tier· 2021

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsCampbell	W48-7	—	15/23	217	1	0	88.0	55	1	0.64
2	@Troy	W21-13	-6.5	13/18	154	2	0	86.0	93	1	0.47
3	vsOld Dominion	W45-17	-7.4	21/28	242	4	0	98.1	77	2	0.77
4	@Syracuse	L21-24	0.3	14/19	205	3	0	75.7	49	0	0.40
5	@UAB	W36-12	9.1	13/19	287	1	0	96.7	144	2	0.95
6	vsMiddle Tennessee	W41-13	-4.0	17/30	222	2	3	67.1	80	1	0.45
7	@UL Monroe	L28-31	-20.3	16/28	135	1	3	55.4	157	2	0.42
8	@North Texas	W35-26	-6.5	12/18	217	3	0	60.1	-8	0	0.46
9	vsMassachusetts	W62-17	-29.3	19/27	307	4	0	71.8	37	0	0.73
10	@Ole Miss	L14-27	14.8	16/25	173	0	3	29.6	71	1	0.02
12	vsLouisiana	L14-42	8.7	14/34	162	2	2	19.8	28	0	0.03
13	vsArmy	L16-31	4.7	24/46	305	1	1	32.7	37	1	0.09
1	vsEastern Michigan	W56-20	-7.8	13/24	231	3	0	93.8	58	2	0.57

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

60.0%

Passing plays

90.2%

Rushing plays

32.1%

Standard downs

54.6%

Passing downs

72.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.46
Passing downs: 0.34
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.28 / 0.76

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2020 — 2021 · 23 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2020	Liberty	6.6	0.460	—	187.7
2021	Liberty	5.3	0.439	-0.02	219.1

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.