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Logan Smothers
Logan Smothers

#7Logan Smothers

QB·Jacksonville State·2024

Logan Smothers is a Volume Passer for Jacksonville State. Logan's 2024 season produced 4.0 total EPA across 33 plays.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.46
    Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.51
    Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Logan Smothers's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Passing
11/19 Comp/Att123 Pass yards0 Pass TD0 INT57.9% Comp %
Rushing
175 Rush yards3 Rush TD22 Carries8.0 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs QB peers

  • Efficiency0
  • Volume24
  • Dual-Threat37
  • Consistency65
  • Clutch0
Player type
Volume Passer

High-rep offense that leans on this QB's arm — value comes through cumulative production across a high number of plays.

High play countFranchise-volume role
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg
Game-to-game consistency65th %ile · average
Key findings
  • ▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
  • ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
  • ▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.92 from the first to second half of the season.
  • ▸Peak game: 4.14 EPA/play in Wk 7 vs New Mexico State (SP+ -19).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗
Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+4.140−4.14Wk 1 vs Coastal Carolina: -0.06 EPA/play1Wk 4 vs Southern Miss: +0.14 EPA/play4Wk 6 vs Kennesaw State: +1.26 EPA/play6Wk 7 vs New Mexico State: +4.14 EPA/play7Wk 9 vs Middle Tennessee: +0.16 EPA/play9Wk 14 vs Western Kentucky: +0.42 EPA/play14Wk 15 vs Western Kentucky: +3.51 EPA/play15
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+C/ATTPass YdsPass TDINTQBRRush YdsRush TDEPA/play
1vsCoastal CarolinaL27-55-6.97/1361006.2170-0.06
4vsSouthern MissW44-7-25.6—————1000.14
6@Kennesaw StateW63-24-25.1—————501.26
7vsNew Mexico StateW54-13-19.0—————8714.14
9vsMiddle TennesseeW42-20-24.4—————1400.16
14@Western KentuckyL17-19-2.24/6620087.13210.42
15vsWestern KentuckyW52-12-2.2—————1013.51

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
8.4%
Passing plays
13.6%
Rushing plays
6.2%
Standard downs
6.5%
Passing downs
14.2%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.34
Passing downs
-0.27
Pass / Rush EPA
0.15 / 0.09

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.